BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LCII
LCI Industries
LCII has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
LCII Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
LCII's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its revenue is under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over LCII in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LCII PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.6x | $78.22 | -19% |
| Current | 12x | $96.99 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $132 | +36% |
| Expensive | 26x | $212 | +119% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LCII's PE is in its cheap range at 12x.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LCII Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for LCII to show an outlook.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
LCII Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.12 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.62 | +44% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.16 | +34% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.57 | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.15 | +39% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.99 | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.10 | +66% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.60 | +122% |
LCII has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over LCII on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LCII Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $992.5M | -4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $968.7M | -13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $932.7M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $1B | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1B | +8% |
| Q4 2024 | $803.1M | -4.1% |
LCII's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $992M last quarter, down 4.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.9% | +2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.7% | +1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.8% | +1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.3% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.9% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.8% | +1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2% | +1.7 points |
LCII has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
LCII Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $53.6M | -34% |
| Q2 2026 | $184.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | -$43.1M | -228% |
| Q4 2025 | $64.3M | -33% |
| Q3 2025 | $80.9M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $99.5M | -45% |
| Q1 2025 | $33.7M | +$49.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $95.7M | -24% |
LCII has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
LCII Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +25K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -49K shares |
| 3 years | -4.3% | -1.1M shares |
| 5 years | -3.9% | -1M shares |
| Available history | -2.7% | -676K shares |
LCII has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $62.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $38.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $28.3M |
LCII hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over LCII on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LCII Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
LCII's net debt is about 1.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.0 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
LCII Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 63.9 | Neutral |
LCII's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 64 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
LCII PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | LCII | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 18x | 34% below |
| PE % | 23 | 47 | 24 pts below |
LCII has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
LCII Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $88.5 | 9.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $96.3 | 0.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $112.3 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $104.4 | 7.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $109.8 | 12% below |
LCII has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
LCII Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $108.7 | $134.3 | +24% |
| 2021 | $134.3 | $149.9 | +12% |
| 2022 | $149.9 | $94.8 | -37% |
| 2023 | $94.8 | $125.7 | +33% |
| 2024 | $125.7 | $102.7 | -18% |
| 2025 | $102.7 | $123.7 | +20% |
| 2026 YTD | $123.7 | $97.0 | -22% |
LCII has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.