BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
KMX
CarMax, Inc.
KMX has a slight edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
KMX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
KMX's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over KMX in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
KMX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $30.47 | -42% |
| Forward | 16x | $52.58 | — |
| Fair | 22x | $46.67 | -11% |
| Current | 25x | $52.58 | — |
| Expensive | 28x | $60.06 | +14% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
KMX's PE is in its expensive range at 25x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over KMX on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
KMX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for KMX, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over KMX on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
KMX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.33 | +56% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.13 | -38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.61 | -56% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.68 | -48% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.03 | +3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.41 | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.62 | +42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.21 | +6.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.94 | -6.7% |
KMX's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.13 over the past year, against $7.26 in late 2021.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over KMX on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over KMX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
KMX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.9B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $8B | +6.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.9B | -1% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.8B | -6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.6B | -6% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $6B | +6.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.2B | +1.2% |
KMX's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $7.9B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.9% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4% | -1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.9% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.8% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.7% | +0.9 points |
KMX's operating margin was 2.8% last quarter, up 0.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
KMX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $805.8M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | -$85.7M | -153% |
| Q1 2026 | -$687.3M | -3764% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +$1.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $654M | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $162.8M | +$384.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $18.8M | -91% |
| Q4 2024 | -$150.6M | -332% |
KMX has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
KMX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +302K shares |
| 1 year | -4.8% | -7.2M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -16.8M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -23.2M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -24.1M shares |
KMX has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $313,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $2.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $54.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $203.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $180.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $204M |
| Q1 2025 | $98.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $116.3M |
KMX spent $261M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 57% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over KMX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
KMX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21.3x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 25.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 24.7x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 18.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 17.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 17.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 18.9x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 20.3x | High |
KMX's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 18 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
KMX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
KMX's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over KMX on valuation relative to its sector.
KMX PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | KMX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 18x | 37% above |
| PE % | 67 | 47 | 20 pts above |
KMX is trading at 25x earnings, a 37% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
KMX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $53.7 | 2% below |
| 20 week MA | $56.5 | 7% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.6 | 8.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 6.7% below |
| 200 week MA | $65.4 | 20% below |
KMX has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
KMX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $88.4 | $92.3 | +4.4% |
| 2021 | $92.3 | $126.3 | +37% |
| 2022 | $126.3 | $60.2 | -52% |
| 2023 | $60.2 | $76.7 | +28% |
| 2024 | $76.7 | $83.8 | +9.2% |
| 2025 | $83.8 | $39.3 | -53% |
| 2026 YTD | $39.3 | $52.6 | +34% |
KMX has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.