BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
JAKK
JAKKS Pacific, Inc.
JAKK has a slight edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
JAKK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
JAKK's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over JAKK in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
JAKK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 3.4x | $7.23 | -80% |
| Fair | 6.4x | $13.62 | -62% |
| Current | 17x | $36.12 | — |
| Expensive | 22x | $47.20 | +31% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JAKK's PE is in its expensive range at 17x.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
JAKK Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for JAKK to show an outlook.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over JAKK on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
JAKK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.14 | +275% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.40 | -60% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.70 | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.86 | -73% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.57 | -80% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.47 | +27% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.15 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.14 | -9.8% |
JAKK's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.14 over the past year, against $8.86 in late 2022.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over JAKK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
JAKK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $254.2M | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $139.2M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $106.7M | -5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $127.1M | -2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $211.2M | -34% |
| Q2 2025 | $119.1M | -20% |
| Q1 2025 | $113.3M | +26% |
| Q4 2024 | $130.7M | +2.6% |
JAKK's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $254M last quarter, up 20% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | -0.1% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -5.2% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | -6.8% | +4.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -7.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | -2.3% | -7.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | -3.3% | +20 points |
| Q4 2024 | -11% | +0.8 points |
JAKK has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
JAKK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$11.8M | +$361K |
| Q2 2026 | -$161K | +$16.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $16.2M | +$20M |
| Q4 2025 | $31.5M | -37% |
| Q3 2025 | -$12.2M | -225% |
| Q2 2025 | -$16.6M | +$571K |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.8M | +$11.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $50.2M | +$74.7M |
JAKK has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over JAKK on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
JAKK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.7% | +428K shares |
| 1 year | +6.5% | +726K shares |
| 3 years | +13% | +1.3M shares |
| 5 years | +91% | +5.7M shares |
| Available history | +301% | +8.9M shares |
JAKK has 12M diluted shares, up 6.5% from a year ago.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
JAKK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
JAKK has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
JAKK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 84.2 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 87.4 | Overbought |
JAKK's weekly RSI is 84 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 87 (overbought).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
JAKK PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | JAKK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 18x | 6.3% below |
| PE % | 73 | 47 | 26 pts above |
JAKK has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
JAKK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $30.1 | 20% above |
| 20 week MA | $26.9 | 34% above |
| 50 week MA | $22.9 | 58% above |
| 100 week MA | $22.2 | 63% above |
| 200 week MA | $22.6 | 60% above |
JAKK has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
JAKK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.81 | $5.10 | -48% |
| 2021 | $5.10 | $10.6 | +108% |
| 2022 | $10.6 | $16.5 | +56% |
| 2023 | $16.5 | $35.6 | +115% |
| 2024 | $35.6 | $27.4 | -23% |
| 2025 | $27.4 | $16.8 | -39% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.8 | $36.1 | +115% |
JAKK has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.