BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over IP overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
IP
International Paper Company
IP offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
IP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
IP's cash flow is currently stable, but its revenue, profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
IP PE Valuation
IP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
IP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for IP, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over IP on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
IP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.18 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$6.56 | -$3.95 |
| Q2 2026 | -$6.52 | -$6.42 |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.36 | -644% |
| Q4 2025 | -$6.71 | -527% |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.61 | -323% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.10 | -108% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.17 | +139% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.57 | +91% |
IP lost $6.56 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over IP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
IP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.2B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $6B | -11% |
| Q1 2026 | $6B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $6B | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.2B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.8B | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.9B | +28% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.6B | -0.5% |
IP's revenue has held roughly level: $6.2B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -19% | -8.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4% | -2.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.6% | +3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | -44% | -39 points |
| Q3 2025 | -11% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.7% | -5.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.3% | -6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.9% | +2.2 points |
IP's operating margin was −19% last quarter, down 8.4 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
IP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$267M | -278% |
| Q2 2026 | -$7M | -113% |
| Q1 2026 | $94M | +$712M |
| Q4 2025 | $255M | +86% |
| Q3 2025 | $150M | -51% |
| Q2 2025 | $54M | -68% |
| Q1 2025 | -$618M | -529% |
| Q4 2024 | $137M | -27% |
IP has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
IP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +100K shares |
| 1 year | +0.3% | +1.6M shares |
| 3 years | +53% | +183M shares |
| 5 years | +26% | +111M shares |
| Available history | +26% | +108M shares |
IP has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $1M |
| Q1 2026 | $30M |
| Q4 2025 | $1M |
| Q3 2025 | $1M |
| Q2 2025 | $1M |
| Q1 2025 | $62M |
| Q4 2024 | $1M |
IP spent $32M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 51% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
IP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 5.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.9x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q3 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2023 | 2.1x | Moderate |
IP's net debt is about 5.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.3 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
IP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.0 | Neutral |
IP's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
IP PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | IP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
IP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
IP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $33.9 | 0.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $36.9 | 8% below |
| 50 week MA | $37.6 | 9.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $43.3 | 22% below |
| 200 week MA | $41.3 | 18% below |
IP has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
IP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $43.5 | $47.1 | +8.4% |
| 2021 | $47.1 | $45.8 | -2.7% |
| 2022 | $45.8 | $34.7 | -24% |
| 2023 | $34.7 | $36.2 | +4.1% |
| 2024 | $36.2 | $54.5 | +51% |
| 2025 | $54.5 | $39.9 | -27% |
| 2026 YTD | $39.9 | $33.9 | -15% |
IP has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.