BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
HTHT
H World Group Limited
HTHT has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
HTHT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
HTHT's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
HTHT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 20x | $45.91 | -8.1% |
| Current | 21x | $49.95 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $54.62 | +9.3% |
| Expensive | 73x | $172 | +244% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HTHT has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over HTHT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
HTHT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HTHT, with profitability holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
HTHT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $2.34 | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.33 | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.37 | +66% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.85 | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.76 | -0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.54 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.43 | -24% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.76 | +16% |
HTHT has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HTHT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $894.4M | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $965.7M | +6.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $1B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $964.4M | +4.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $809.6M | +2.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $903.9M | +7.9% |
| Q3 2024 | $966.8M | +2.4% |
HTHT has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 31% | +3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | +4.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +11 points |
| Q3 2025 | 29% | +2.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2024 | 27% | -3.6 points |
HTHT has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
HTHT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $481.3M | +30% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.6M | -85% |
| Q4 2025 | $473.3M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $224.1M | +5.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $370.7M | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $51M | -44% |
| Q4 2024 | $391.1M | +29% |
| Q3 2024 | $212.8M | +44% |
HTHT has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
HTHT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -1.7M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +2.1M shares |
| 3 years | -3% | -10.1M shares |
| 5 years | -0.6% | -2.1M shares |
| Available history | +6.9% | +21M shares |
HTHT has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $275.7M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $49.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $450,214 |
| Q2 2025 | $2M |
| Q1 2025 | $64.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $2M |
| Q3 2024 | $71.3M |
HTHT spent $325M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 133% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over HTHT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HTHT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 4.3x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 4.2x | High |
HTHT's net debt is about 2.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.8 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
HTHT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 88.0 | Overbought |
HTHT's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 88 (overbought).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
HTHT PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HTHT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 18% above |
| PE % | 30 | 47 | 17 pts below |
HTHT has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
HTHT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $46.2 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $44.5 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $47.3 | 5.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $41.5 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $40.0 | 25% above |
HTHT has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
HTHT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $41.5 | $44.4 | +7% |
| 2021 | $44.4 | $37.3 | -16% |
| 2022 | $37.3 | $41.7 | +12% |
| 2023 | $41.7 | $33.4 | -20% |
| 2024 | $33.4 | $33.4 | -0.1% |
| 2025 | $33.4 | $48.5 | +45% |
| 2026 YTD | $48.5 | $50.0 | +3% |
HTHT has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.