BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
HSAI
Hesai Group
HSAI has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
HSAI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
HSAI's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability and cash flow are stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
HSAI PE Valuation
HSAI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HSAI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for HSAI, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
HSAI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.48 | +336% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.47 | +$0.49 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.43 | +$0.56 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.46 | +$0.92 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.11 | +$0.66 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.53 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.13 | +$0.44 |
| Q3 2024 | -$0.46 | +$0.11 |
HSAI has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over HSAI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HSAI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $129.2M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $102.1M | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $150.1M | +39% |
| Q3 2025 | $119.4M | +47% |
| Q2 2025 | $106M | +54% |
| Q1 2025 | $78.8M | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $108M | +28% |
| Q3 2024 | $81M | +21% |
HSAI has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.3% | -3 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.3% | +5.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -9.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | +24 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2% | +24 points |
| Q1 2025 | -6.4% | +32 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +44 points |
| Q3 2024 | -14% | +23 points |
HSAI's operating margin was 0.3% last quarter, down 3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA has the edge over HSAI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HSAI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | $0 | $0 |
| Q3 2024 | $0 | $0 |
HSAI's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against $0 the year before.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over HSAI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
HSAI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +17% | +24M shares |
| 3 years | +30% | +37.5M shares |
| 5 years | +69% | +66.7M shares |
| Available history | +84% | +74.6M shares |
HSAI has 163M diluted shares, up 17% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
HSAI hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
HSAI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -9.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -58.4x | Net Cash |
HSAI has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
HSAI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 20.8 | Neutral |
HSAI's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
HSAI PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HSAI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
HSAI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
HSAI has stronger trend alignment. BABA is above 0 of 5 weekly averages versus HSAI above 0 of 4.
HSAI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $14.2 | 0.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $16.0 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $20.0 | 29% below |
| 100 week MA | $19.8 | 28% below |
HSAI is in a downtrend: it's below all four of its weekly moving averages, and 28% below its 100-week average.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
HSAI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $22.2 | $8.91 | -60% |
| 2024 | $8.91 | $13.5 | +52% |
| 2025 | $13.5 | $22.5 | +67% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.5 | $14.2 | -37% |
HSAI has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.