BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over HOV overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
HOV
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.
HOV's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
HOV Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Unavailable |
HOV's cash flow is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its revenue is under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over HOV in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HOV PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 1.4x | $1.23 | -99% |
| Fair | 4.7x | $4.20 | -96% |
| Expensive | 17x | $14.69 | -85% |
| Current | 107x | $95.33 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HOV's PE is in its expensive range at 107x.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HOV Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| -- |
Analysts expect HOV's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over HOV on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HOV Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.89 | -96% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.58 | -87% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.47 | -80% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.43 | -77% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.47 | -36% |
| Q2 2025 | $28.23 | -5% |
| Q1 2025 | $32.46 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $31.79 | +18% |
HOV's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.89 over the past year, against $86.18 in early 2022.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over HOV on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over HOV on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HOV Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $705.7M | -12% |
| Q2 2026 | $667.6M | -2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $632M | -6.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $817.9M | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $800.6M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $686.5M | -3.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $673.6M | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $979.6M | +10% |
HOV's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $706M last quarter, down 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.9% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.2% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2% | -8.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1% | -11 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5% | -5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.5% | +1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | -3.2 points |
HOV's operating margin was −0.9% last quarter, down 1.9 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
HOV Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$27.9M | -161% |
| Q2 2026 | -$70.5M | -541% |
| Q1 2026 | $132.1M | +$191.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $164M | +47% |
| Q3 2025 | $45.8M | +$141.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $16M | -81% |
| Q1 2025 | -$59.6M | +$34.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $111.4M | -19% |
HOV has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
HOV Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -4K shares |
| 1 year | -6.9% | -475K shares |
| 3 years | -4.4% | -293K shares |
| 5 years | +0.7% | +44K shares |
| Available history | +7.2% | +430K shares |
HOV has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $78,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $9.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $9M |
| Q4 2025 | $58,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $94,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $12.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $18.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $11,000 |
HOV spent $19M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 39% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
HOV Net Leverage
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
HOV Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.9 | Oversold |
HOV's weekly RSI is 37 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 17 (oversold).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over HOV on valuation relative to its sector.
HOV PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HOV | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 107x | 18x | 494% above |
| PE % | 97 | 47 | 50 pts above |
HOV is trading at 107x earnings, a 494% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
HOV Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.0 | 8.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $118.5 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $115.7 | 18% below |
| 100 week MA | $117.6 | 19% below |
| 200 week MA | $123.6 | 23% below |
HOV is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 23% below its 200-week average.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
HOV Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.1 | $36.2 | +71% |
| 2021 | $36.2 | $125.5 | +247% |
| 2022 | $125.5 | $46.9 | -63% |
| 2023 | $46.9 | $155.6 | +232% |
| 2024 | $155.6 | $133.3 | -14% |
| 2025 | $133.3 | $101.8 | -24% |
| 2026 YTD | $101.8 | $95.3 | -6.3% |
HOV has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.