BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
HOUR
Hour Loop, Inc.
HOUR has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
HOUR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
HOUR's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over HOUR in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HOUR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 23x | $0.91 | -44% |
| Fair | 38x | $1.54 | -5.2% |
| Current | 40x | $1.62 | — |
| Expensive | 66x | $2.64 | +63% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HOUR's PE is in its fair range at 40x.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HOUR Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for HOUR to show an outlook.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
HOUR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.04 | +33% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.04 | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.05 | +400% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.05 | +150% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.03 | -40% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.03 | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.02 | +$0.09 |
HOUR has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over HOUR on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over HOUR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HOUR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $32.1M | -4% |
| Q2 2026 | $33.9M | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $29.9M | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $56.1M | +3% |
| Q3 2025 | $33.4M | +7.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $27.1M | -3.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $25.8M | +4.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $54.4M | -8.5% |
HOUR's revenue is growing: $32M last quarter, down 4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.5% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.8% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.8% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1.5% | +3.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6% | -2.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.5% | -3.6 points |
HOUR's operating margin was 1.5% last quarter, down 0.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
HOUR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$586.5K | -231% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.4M | -$453.6K |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.2M | -$2.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $3M | +93% |
| Q3 2025 | $449.3K | +$2.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$901.6K | -305% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24.6K | -105% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5M | -10% |
HOUR has the edge over BABA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
HOUR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +8.4K shares |
| 1 year | +0.1% | +28.4K shares |
| 3 years | +0.4% | +141K shares |
| 5 years | +1.1% | +400K shares |
| Available history | +5.7% | +1.9M shares |
HOUR has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
HOUR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
HOUR has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
HOUR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.0 | Oversold |
HOUR's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over HOUR on valuation relative to its sector.
HOUR PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HOUR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 40x | 18x | 125% above |
| PE % | 53 | 55 | 2 pts below |
HOUR is trading at 40x earnings, a 125% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
HOUR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1.68 | 3.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $1.80 | 10% below |
| 50 week MA | $1.89 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $1.89 | 14% below |
| 200 week MA | $1.70 | 4.7% below |
HOUR is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 4.7% below its 200-week average.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
HOUR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $7.99 | $3.00 | -62% |
| 2023 | $3.00 | $1.38 | -54% |
| 2024 | $1.38 | $2.82 | +104% |
| 2025 | $2.82 | $1.92 | -32% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.92 | $1.62 | -16% |
HOUR has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.