BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over GRBK overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
GRBK
Green Brick Partners, Inc.
GRBK offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
GRBK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
GRBK's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue and cash flow are under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over GRBK in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GRBK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.1x | $38.15 | -37% |
| Fair | 8.9x | $55.06 | -9.6% |
| Current | 9.8x | $60.92 | — |
| Expensive | 10x | $64.66 | +6.1% |
| Forward | 11x | $60.92 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GRBK's PE is in its expensive range at 9.8x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 11x next year's earnings.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over GRBK on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
GRBK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Decline | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect GRBK's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over GRBK on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GRBK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.30 | -15% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.22 | -18% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.64 | -15% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.79 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.07 | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.62 | -1% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.83 | +7.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.30 | +26% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.45 | +38% |
GRBK's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $6.22 over the past year, against $8.45 in late 2024.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over GRBK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GRBK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $448.2M | -10% |
| Q2 2026 | $493.8M | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $465.5M | -6.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $536.8M | -5.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $499.1M | -4.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $549.1M | -2% |
| Q1 2025 | $497.6M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $567.3M | +26% |
GRBK's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $448M last quarter, down 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | -4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 20% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -3.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | -3.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 20% | -4.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 21% | -4.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 24% | +1.7 points |
GRBK has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
GRBK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$53.7M | -$41.7M |
| Q2 2026 | -$9.8M | -113% |
| Q1 2026 | $55M | -19% |
| Q4 2025 | $78.4M | +180% |
| Q3 2025 | -$12M | -$4.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $74M | +9391% |
| Q1 2025 | $68M | +90612% |
| Q4 2024 | $28.1M | +$50.4M |
GRBK has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
GRBK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -75K shares |
| 1 year | -1% | -428K shares |
| 3 years | -5.7% | -2.6M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -7.9M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -7.4M shares |
GRBK has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $17.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $9.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $7.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $23M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $43.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $16.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $393,000 |
GRBK spent $58M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 5.7% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
GRBK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
GRBK has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
GRBK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.7 | Oversold |
GRBK's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
GRBK PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | GRBK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.8x | 18x | 46% below |
| PE % | 74 | 47 | 27 pts above |
GRBK has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
GRBK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $63.8 | 4.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $68.7 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $68.9 | 12% below |
| 100 week MA | $65.8 | 7.4% below |
| 200 week MA | $59.8 | 1.8% above |
GRBK has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
GRBK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.4 | $24.3 | +113% |
| 2021 | $24.3 | $29.9 | +23% |
| 2022 | $29.9 | $24.3 | -19% |
| 2023 | $24.3 | $51.9 | +114% |
| 2024 | $51.9 | $56.4 | +8.7% |
| 2025 | $56.4 | $63.8 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $63.8 | $60.9 | -4.5% |
GRBK has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.