BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
FIVE
Five Below, Inc.
FIVE has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
FIVE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
FIVE's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
FIVE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 22x | $247 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $252 | +2.1% |
| Forward | 24x | $247 | — |
| Fair | 35x | $390 | +58% |
| Expensive | 49x | $546 | +121% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FIVE has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FIVE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FIVE, with profitability improving.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
FIVE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.31 | -7.5% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.15 | +126% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.93 | +66% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.47 | +41% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.57 | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.94 | -2.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.77 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.59 | -15% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.85 | +0.2% |
FIVE has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
FIVE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.7B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $1B | +24% |
| Q2 2025 | $970.5M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $843.7M | +15% |
FIVE has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 22% | +17 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +6.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.2% | +4.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.1% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.2% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -2.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | -0.1% | -2.3 points |
FIVE has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
FIVE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $142.3M | +195% |
| Q2 2026 | $190M | +97% |
| Q1 2026 | $400.1M | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | -$133.2M | -$22.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $48.3M | +$80.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $96.5M | +$157.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $311.4M | +2.2% |
| Q4 2024 | -$111M | +$81.9M |
FIVE has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
FIVE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -133K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +85.1K shares |
| 3 years | -0.6% | -327K shares |
| 5 years | -1.5% | -825K shares |
| Available history | -1% | -545K shares |
FIVE has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $13,000 |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | $10.1M |
| Q2 2024 | $30.2M |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
FIVE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
FIVE has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
FIVE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.1 | Neutral |
FIVE's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over FIVE on valuation relative to its sector.
FIVE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | FIVE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 18x | 23% above |
| PE % | 16 | 47 | 31 pts below |
FIVE is trading at 22x earnings, a 23% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
FIVE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $229.1 | 7.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $227.0 | 8.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $215.4 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $166.0 | 49% above |
| 200 week MA | $162.4 | 52% above |
FIVE has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
FIVE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $125.4 | $158.9 | +27% |
| 2021 | $158.9 | $193.6 | +22% |
| 2022 | $193.6 | $174.8 | -9.7% |
| 2023 | $174.8 | $213.2 | +22% |
| 2024 | $213.2 | $109.2 | -49% |
| 2025 | $109.2 | $189.9 | +74% |
| 2026 YTD | $189.9 | $247.2 | +30% |
FIVE has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.