BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
ETSY
Etsy, Inc.
ETSY has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
ETSY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
ETSY's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
ETSY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $88.29 | — |
| Forward | 19x | $88.29 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $233 | +164% |
| Fair | 40x | $343 | +288% |
| Expensive | 77x | $662 | +649% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ETSY has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ETSY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ETSY, with profitability improving.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over ETSY on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
ETSY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.58 | -46% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.55 | +511% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.87 | +53% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.48 | +80% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.39 | -41% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.40 | -29% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.22 | -43% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.38 | -37% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.35 | +4.9% |
ETSY's earnings per share have jumped to their highest in seven years: $8.55 over the past year, up from $1.40 the year before.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over ETSY on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ETSY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $692.5M | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $668.3M | -0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $631.3M | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $881.6M | +3.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $678M | +2.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $672.7M | +3.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $651.2M | +0.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $852.2M | +1.2% |
ETSY's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $692M last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | +3.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +7.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | +22 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | -3.4% | -14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +4.5 points |
ETSY has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
ETSY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $158.3M | -26% |
| Q2 2026 | $39.3M | -61% |
| Q1 2026 | $79.3M | +73% |
| Q4 2025 | $315.9M | +1.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $215M | +0.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $101.3M | -31% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.9M | -31% |
| Q4 2024 | $310.9M | +7.2% |
ETSY has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
ETSY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.3% | -2.7M shares |
| 1 year | -3.5% | -4.3M shares |
| 3 years | -17% | -23.8M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -27.6M shares |
| Available history | -6.7% | -8.5M shares |
ETSY has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $394.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $249.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $145.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $133.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $119.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $334.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $189.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $259.6M |
ETSY spent $923M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 2.1% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over ETSY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ETSY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.5x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0x | Elevated |
ETSY's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.4 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
ETSY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 75.1 | Neutral |
ETSY's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
ETSY PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ETSY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 18x | 43% below |
| PE % | 0 | 47 | 47 pts below |
ETSY has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
ETSY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $82.2 | 7.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $80.7 | 9.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $67.5 | 31% above |
| 100 week MA | $61.5 | 44% above |
| 200 week MA | $68.7 | 29% above |
ETSY has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
ETSY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $45.0 | $190.3 | +323% |
| 2021 | $190.3 | $228.1 | +20% |
| 2022 | $228.1 | $126.9 | -44% |
| 2023 | $126.9 | $81.1 | -36% |
| 2024 | $81.1 | $52.7 | -35% |
| 2025 | $52.7 | $55.8 | +5.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $55.8 | $88.3 | +58% |
ETSY has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.