BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CVGI
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.
CVGI has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
CVGI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
CVGI's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
CVGI PE Valuation
CVGI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 24x next year's earnings.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CVGI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect CVGI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over CVGI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
CVGI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.15 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.32 | +$1.32 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.67 | +$0.47 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.52 | +$0.53 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.67 | +$0.16 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.64 | -262% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.14 | -220% |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.05 | -181% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.83 | -156% |
CVGI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.32 per share over the past year, against $1.64 at its worst in late 2025.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over CVGI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over CVGI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CVGI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $208.1M | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $195.2M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $171.5M | +1% |
| Q4 2025 | $154.8M | -5.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $152.5M | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | $172M | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $169.8M | -27% |
| Q4 2024 | $163.3M | -27% |
CVGI's revenue is recovering but still below its 2023 peak: $208M last quarter, up 36% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7% | +4.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.8% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.6% | +7.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1.2% | +2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -0.7% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2 points |
| Q4 2024 | -3.2% | -5.5 points |
CVGI's operating margin was 3.7% last quarter, up 4.4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
CVGI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.5M | -$6K |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.4M | -108% |
| Q1 2026 | -$4.2M | -137% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.7M | +$39.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.5M | +$16.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $17.4M | +173% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.4M | +$18.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$30.6M | -908% |
CVGI has the edge over BABA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over CVGI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
CVGI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +4.4M shares |
| 1 year | +16% | +5.3M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +5.8M shares |
| 5 years | +20% | +6.5M shares |
| Available history | +27% | +8.4M shares |
CVGI has 39M diluted shares, up 16% from a year ago.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over CVGI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CVGI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 5.2x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 7.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 6.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 7.9x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.9x | High |
CVGI's net debt is about 1.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 7.7 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
CVGI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.2 | Neutral |
CVGI's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
CVGI PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CVGI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
CVGI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
CVGI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.04 | 13% above |
| 20 week MA | $3.49 | 1.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $3.24 | 6.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $2.46 | 40% above |
| 200 week MA | $4.49 | 23% below |
CVGI has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
CVGI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $6.29 | $8.52 | +35% |
| 2021 | $8.52 | $7.55 | -11% |
| 2022 | $7.55 | $6.63 | -12% |
| 2023 | $6.63 | $7.01 | +5.7% |
| 2024 | $7.01 | $2.34 | -67% |
| 2025 | $2.34 | $1.50 | -36% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.50 | $3.45 | +130% |
CVGI has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.