BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CTRN
Citi Trends, Inc.
CTRN has a slight edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
CTRN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
CTRN's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over CTRN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CTRN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 3.8x | $3.31 | -92% |
| Fair | 10x | $8.73 | -80% |
| Forward | 19x | $43.05 | — |
| Expensive | 46x | $39.40 | -8.5% |
| Current | 50x | $43.05 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CTRN's PE is in its expensive range at 50x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CTRN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CTRN, with profitability improving.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
CTRN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.33 | +170% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.86 | +$2.85 |
| Q2 2026 | $1.43 | +$6.09 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.63 | +$5.82 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.99 | +$1.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.99 | +$0.68 |
| Q2 2025 | -$4.66 | -$3.59 |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.19 | -$3.73 |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.06 | -$2.04 |
CTRN has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over CTRN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CTRN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $211.6M | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $230.9M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $230.4M | +9.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $197.1M | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $190.8M | +8% |
| Q2 2025 | $201.7M | +8.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $211.2M | -1.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $179.1M | -0.3% |
CTRN's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $212M last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.8% | -2.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2% | +3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1% | +2.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -3.7% | +1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8% | +16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.6% | -1.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.9% | -1.6 points |
CTRN's operating margin was −0.8% last quarter, down 2.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
CTRN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$24M | -$22.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $15M | +$28.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $767K | +$21.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.7M | -205% |
| Q2 2025 | -$13.1M | +$8.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $26M | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | -$20.4M | -$12.8M |
CTRN has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
CTRN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.5% | -301K shares |
| 1 year | -1.6% | -130K shares |
| 3 years | -0.5% | -41.4K shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -995K shares |
| Available history | -30% | -3.5M shares |
CTRN has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3M |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | $4.7M |
| Q2 2022 | $5.3M |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CTRN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -27.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -20.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2023 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
CTRN has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
CTRN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.0 | Oversold |
CTRN's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 6 (oversold).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over CTRN on valuation relative to its sector.
CTRN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CTRN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 50x | 18x | 178% above |
| PE % | 86 | 47 | 39 pts above |
CTRN is trading at 50x earnings, a 178% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
CTRN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $47.4 | 9.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.9 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $50.8 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $40.1 | 7.4% above |
| 200 week MA | $31.2 | 38% above |
CTRN has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
CTRN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $22.8 | $47.4 | +108% |
| 2021 | $47.4 | $76.4 | +61% |
| 2022 | $76.4 | $27.6 | -64% |
| 2023 | $27.6 | $28.3 | +2.4% |
| 2024 | $28.3 | $26.9 | -5.1% |
| 2025 | $26.9 | $40.2 | +50% |
| 2026 YTD | $40.2 | $43.1 | +7.2% |
CTRN has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.