BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over CAVA overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc.
CAVA offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
CAVA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
CAVA's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over CAVA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAVA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 53x | $28.53 | -50% |
| Fair | 75x | $40.72 | -29% |
| Forward | 84x | $57.35 | — |
| Current | 106x | $57.35 | — |
| Expensive | 147x | $79.57 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAVA's PE is in its fair range at 106x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 84x next year's earnings.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAVA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for CAVA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over CAVA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAVA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.69 | +27% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.54 | -53% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.55 | -54% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.52 | -57% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.54 | -51% |
CAVA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.54 over the past year, against $1.20 in early 2025.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over CAVA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAVA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $356.4M | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $368.4M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $438.3M | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $275M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $292.2M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $280.6M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $331.8M | +28% |
| Q4 2024 | $227.4M | +28% |
CAVA has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.2% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.8% | +1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1% | -0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.9% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.7% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7% | +2.6 points |
CAVA's operating margin was 4.2% last quarter, down 1.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
CAVA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$7.7M | -661% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.3M | +53% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.5M | +473% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9M | +36% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4M | -94% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.2M | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7M | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1M | +$9.3M |
CAVA has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
CAVA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -93K shares |
| 1 year | 0% | +15K shares |
| 3 years | +278% | +87M shares |
CAVA has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | $1.5M |
| Q3 2023 | $105,000 |
| Q2 2023 | $1.4M |
| Q4 2022 | $250,000 |
| Q3 2022 | $19,000 |
| Q2 2022 | $13,000 |
| Q2 2022 | $629,000 |
| Q4 2021 | $156,000 |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAVA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
CAVA has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
CAVA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.6 | Neutral |
CAVA's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over CAVA on valuation relative to its sector.
CAVA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CAVA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 106x | 18x | 489% above |
| PE % | 62 | 36 | 26 pts above |
CAVA is trading at 106x earnings, a 489% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
CAVA has stronger trend alignment. BABA is above 0 of 5 weekly averages versus CAVA above 1 of 4.
CAVA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $55.7 | 3% above |
| 20 week MA | $61.8 | 7.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $69.9 | 18% below |
| 100 week MA | $77.2 | 26% below |
CAVA has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 26% below its 100-week average.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
CAVA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $38.2 | $43.0 | +13% |
| 2024 | $43.0 | $114.4 | +166% |
| 2025 | $114.4 | $60.2 | -47% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.2 | $57.4 | -4.7% |
CAVA has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.