BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has a slight edge over CAL overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
CAL
Caleres, Inc.
CAL offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
CAL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
CAL's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue, profitability and cash flow are stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over CAL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 4.8x | $7.30 | -45% |
| Forward | 6.1x | $13.20 | — |
| Fair | 6.3x | $9.45 | -28% |
| Expensive | 8.5x | $12.88 | -2.4% |
| Current | 8.7x | $13.20 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAL's PE is in its expensive range at 8.7x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 6.1x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over CAL on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
CAL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect CAL's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over CAL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.15 | +42% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.51 | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.00 | -100% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.21 | -107% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.65 | -85% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.77 | -62% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.42 | -49% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.09 | -36% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.48 | +2.3% |
CAL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.51 over the past year, against $5.13 in mid-2022.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over CAL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $695.5M | +5.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $666.6M | +8.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $695.1M | +8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $790.1M | +6.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $658.5M | -3.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $614.2M | -6.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $639.2M | -8.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $740.9M | -2.8% |
CAL's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $695M last quarter, up 5.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +9.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.6% | +1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | -3.8% | -5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5% | -6.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.9% | -4.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2% | -3.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.8 points |
CAL has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
CAL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $75.6M | +116% |
| Q2 2026 | -$39M | -$12.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $43.1M | +140% |
| Q4 2025 | -$12.4M | +$45M |
| Q3 2025 | $35M | -49% |
| Q2 2025 | -$26.2M | -200% |
| Q1 2025 | $18M | -44% |
| Q4 2024 | -$57.4M | -539% |
CAL has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
CAL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +77K shares |
| 1 year | +0.6% | +206K shares |
| 3 years | -4.2% | -1.5M shares |
CAL has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $3.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $7,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $2,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $5,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $5M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $50M |
CAL spent $3M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 94% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over CAL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
CAL's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.4 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
CAL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 49.9 | Neutral |
CAL's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
CAL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CAL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.7x | 18x | 51% below |
| PE % | 85 | 47 | 38 pts above |
CAL has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
CAL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.8 | 3.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $12.6 | 4.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $12.6 | 4.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $14.0 | 5.6% below |
| 200 week MA | $22.0 | 40% below |
CAL has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
CAL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $23.6 | $13.5 | -43% |
| 2021 | $13.5 | $21.9 | +62% |
| 2022 | $21.9 | $21.8 | -0.5% |
| 2023 | $21.8 | $30.7 | +41% |
| 2024 | $30.7 | $23.4 | -24% |
| 2025 | $23.4 | $13.3 | -43% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $13.2 | -0.6% |
CAL has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.