BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BLBD
Blue Bird Corporation
BLBD has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
BLBD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
BLBD's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
BLBD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 6.8x | $55.45 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $103 | +85% |
| Forward | 13x | $55.45 | — |
| Fair | 17x | $138 | +150% |
| Expensive | 39x | $320 | +476% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BLBD has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over BLBD on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
BLBD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect BLBD's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
BLBD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.42 | -46% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.22 | +136% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.96 | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.88 | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.48 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.21 | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.21 | +69% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.16 | +327% |
BLBD has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BLBD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $517.2M | +30% |
| Q1 2026 | $352.6M | -1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $333.1M | +6.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $409.4M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $398M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $358.9M | +3.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $313.9M | -1.2% |
| Q3 2024 | $350.2M | +16% |
BLBD's revenue is growing: $517M last quarter, up 30% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | +5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.4% | -1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -1.4 points |
| Q3 2024 | 7.3% | -2.3 points |
BLBD has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
BLBD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $21.7M | -59% |
| Q1 2026 | $39.9M | +113% |
| Q4 2025 | $31.1M | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $60.5M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $52.3M | +$55.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $18.7M | -64% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.8M | +$24.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $50.2M | +49% |
BLBD has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over BLBD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
BLBD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +8.4% | +2.7M shares |
| 1 year | +7.9% | +2.6M shares |
| 3 years | +7.8% | +2.6M shares |
| 5 years | +28% | +7.7M shares |
| Available history | +30% | +8.1M shares |
BLBD has 35M diluted shares, up 7.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $198,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $2.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $5.5M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4M |
| Q3 2024 | $877,000 |
BLBD spent $8M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 52% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
BLBD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BLBD has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
BLBD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.2 | Oversold |
BLBD's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
BLBD PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BLBD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.8x | 18x | 63% below |
| PE % | 0 | 47 | 47 pts below |
BLBD has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
BLBD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $56.9 | 2.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $63.9 | 13% below |
| 50 week MA | $61.2 | 9.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $52.7 | 5.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $42.1 | 32% above |
BLBD has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
BLBD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $23.0 | $19.1 | -17% |
| 2021 | $19.1 | $14.7 | -23% |
| 2022 | $14.7 | $9.97 | -32% |
| 2023 | $9.97 | $27.0 | +170% |
| 2024 | $27.0 | $39.4 | +46% |
| 2025 | $39.4 | $50.7 | +29% |
| 2026 YTD | $50.7 | $55.5 | +9.3% |
BLBD has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.