BABA

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

53
Fundamentals36/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

BABA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

BJRI

BJ's Restaurants, Inc.

66
Fundamentals65/ 100
Valuation64/ 100
Upside potential66/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

BJRI has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.

BABA Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Under pressure
Weak
Healthy

BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.

BJRI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Healthy
Healthy
Strong

BJRI's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.

BABA PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.3x19x28x37x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.3x19x28x37x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap16x$69.66-26%
Fair20x$86.59-8.2%
Current21x$94.36—
Expensive26x$115+22%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

BABA has the edge over BJRI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

BJRI PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE190x379x569x758x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE190x379x569x758x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap20x$42.55-22%
Current26x$54.89—
Fair32x$66.37+21%
Expensive51x$108+96%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

BJRI's PE is in its cheap range at 26x.

BABA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

BJRI Forward outlook

There aren't enough analyst estimates for BJRI to show an outlook.

BABA Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+33%$125.09
Downside-23%$72.35

Calculated from the latest close: $94.36 on Nov 12.

BABA trails BJRI on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

BJRI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+37%$75.16
Downside-19%$44.45

Calculated from the latest close: $54.89 on Nov 12.

BJRI has a better modeled risk to reward balance than BABA, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

BABA Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $8.12Q4 2023: $6.04Q1 2024: $4.71Q2 2024: $4.29Q3 2024: $5.26Q4 2024: $7.47Q1 2025: $8.06Q2 2025: $9.27Q3 2025: $7.85Q4 2025: $5.79Q1 2026: $6.57Q2 2026: $4.42
Q3 2023: $8.12Q4 2023: $6.04Q1 2024: $4.71Q2 2024: $4.29Q3 2024: $5.26Q4 2024: $7.47Q1 2025: $8.06Q2 2025: $9.27Q3 2025: $7.85Q4 2025: $5.79Q1 2026: $6.57Q2 2026: $4.42
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q2 2026$4.42-52%
Q1 2026$6.57-18%
Q4 2025$5.79-22%
Q3 2025$7.85+49%
Q2 2025$9.27+116%
Q1 2025$8.06+71%
Q4 2024$7.47+24%
Q3 2024$5.26-35%

BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.

BJRI Earnings Per Share

Q1 2024: $0.82Q2 2024: $0.99Q3 2024: $1.21Q4 2024: $1.24Q4 2024: $0.70Q2 2025: $0.96Q3 2025: $1.21Q3 2025: $1.36Q4 2025: $2.16Q1 2026: $1.99Q2 2026: $1.88Q3 2026: $2.10
Q1 2024: $0.82Q2 2024: $0.99Q3 2024: $1.21Q4 2024: $1.24Q4 2024: $0.70Q2 2025: $0.96Q3 2025: $1.21Q3 2025: $1.36Q4 2025: $2.16Q1 2026: $1.99Q2 2026: $1.88Q3 2026: $2.10
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026$2.10+54%
Q2 2026$1.88+55%
Q1 2026$1.99+107%
Q4 2025$2.16+209%
Q3 2025$1.36+9.7%
Q2 2025$1.210%
Q1 2025$0.96-3%
Q4 2024$0.70-15%

BJRI has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

BABA Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $33.7BQ4 2023: $39.1BQ1 2024: $33.3BQ2 2024: $36.5BQ3 2024: $35.5BQ4 2024: $42BQ1 2025: $35.5BQ2 2025: $37.2BQ3 2025: $37.2BQ4 2025: $42.7BQ1 2026: $36.5BQ2 2026: $40.2B
Q3 2023: $33.7BQ4 2023: $39.1BQ1 2024: $33.3BQ2 2024: $36.5BQ3 2024: $35.5BQ4 2024: $42BQ1 2025: $35.5BQ2 2025: $37.2BQ3 2025: $37.2BQ4 2025: $42.7BQ1 2026: $36.5BQ2 2026: $40.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$40.2B+8.3%
Q1 2026$36.5B+2.9%
Q4 2025$42.7B+1.7%
Q3 2025$37.2B+4.8%
Q2 2025$37.2B+1.8%
Q1 2025$35.5B+6.6%
Q4 2024$42B+7.6%
Q3 2024$35.5B+5.2%

BABA has the edge over BJRI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

BJRI Quarterly Revenue

Q1 2024: $324MQ2 2024: $337MQ3 2024: $350MQ4 2024: $326MQ4 2024: $344MQ2 2025: $348MQ3 2025: $366MQ3 2025: $330MQ4 2025: $355MQ1 2026: $358MQ2 2026: $389MQ3 2026: $359M
Q1 2024: $324MQ2 2024: $337MQ3 2024: $350MQ4 2024: $326MQ4 2024: $344MQ2 2025: $348MQ3 2025: $366MQ3 2025: $330MQ4 2025: $355MQ1 2026: $358MQ2 2026: $389MQ3 2026: $359M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$358.6M+8.6%
Q2 2026$388.9M+6.4%
Q1 2026$358.1M+2.9%
Q4 2025$355.4M+3.2%
Q3 2025$330.2M+1.4%
Q2 2025$365.6M+4.5%
Q1 2025$348M+3.2%
Q4 2024$344.3M+6.4%

BJRI's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $359M last quarter, up 8.6% from the same quarter a year ago.

BABA Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: $5.4BQ4 2023: $11BQ1 2024: $34MQ2 2024: $3.2BQ3 2024: $2.1BQ4 2024: $10.4BQ1 2025: −$4.2BQ2 2025: −$2.7BQ3 2025: −$3.2BQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: −$2.7BQ2 2026: −$6.7B
Q3 2023: $5.4BQ4 2023: $11BQ1 2024: $34MQ2 2024: $3.2BQ3 2024: $2.1BQ4 2024: $10.4BQ1 2025: −$4.2BQ2 2025: −$2.7BQ3 2025: −$3.2BQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: −$2.7BQ2 2026: −$6.7B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026-$6.7B-$4.1B
Q1 2026-$2.7B+$1.5B
Q4 2025$1B-90%
Q3 2025-$3.2B-254%
Q2 2025-$2.7B-182%
Q1 2025-$4.2B-12231%
Q4 2024$10.4B-4.8%
Q3 2024$2.1B-62%

BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.

BJRI Free Cash Flow

Q1 2024: $15MQ2 2024: $448,000Q3 2024: $735,000Q4 2024: $8MQ4 2024: $16MQ2 2025: −$12MQ3 2025: $42MQ3 2025: $4MQ4 2025: $7MQ1 2026: $27MQ2 2026: $8MQ3 2026: $22M
Q1 2024: $15MQ2 2024: $448,000Q3 2024: $735,000Q4 2024: $8MQ4 2024: $16MQ2 2025: −$12MQ3 2025: $42MQ3 2025: $4MQ4 2025: $7MQ1 2026: $27MQ2 2026: $8MQ3 2026: $22M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$22.2M+515%
Q2 2026$7.7M-82%
Q1 2026$27.2M+$39.2M
Q4 2025$7.5M-53%
Q3 2025$3.6M-53%
Q2 2025$41.9M+5601%
Q1 2025-$12.1M-2792%
Q4 2024$15.8M+3.1%

BJRI has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

BABA Total Shares

Q3 2023: 2.6BQ4 2023: 2.5BQ1 2024: 2.5BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.4BQ4 2024: 2.4BQ1 2025: 2.4BQ2 2025: 2.4BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.4BQ1 2026: 2.4BQ2 2026: 2.4B
Q3 2023: 2.6BQ4 2023: 2.5BQ1 2024: 2.5BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.4BQ4 2024: 2.4BQ1 2025: 2.4BQ2 2025: 2.4BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.4BQ1 2026: 2.4BQ2 2026: 2.4B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.5%+11.1M shares
1 year+0.9%+21.4M shares
3 years-6.2%-161M shares
5 years-12%-339M shares
Available history-8.4%-221M shares

BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.

BJRI Total Shares

Q1 2024: 24MQ2 2024: 24MQ3 2024: 24MQ4 2024: 23MQ4 2024: 24MQ2 2025: 23MQ3 2025: 23MQ3 2025: 22MQ4 2025: 23MQ1 2026: 22MQ2 2026: 22MQ3 2026: 23M
Q1 2024: 24MQ2 2024: 24MQ3 2024: 24MQ4 2024: 23MQ4 2024: 24MQ2 2025: 23MQ3 2025: 23MQ3 2025: 22MQ4 2025: 23MQ1 2026: 22MQ2 2026: 22MQ3 2026: 23M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+3.2%+693K shares
1 year+0.4%+99K shares
3 years-4.1%-960K shares
5 years-3%-708K shares
Available history+9.7%+2M shares

BJRI has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

BABA Net Leverage

Q3 2023: -0.6xQ4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.4xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: 0.1xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.2xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.5x
Q3 2023: -0.6xQ4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.4xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: 0.1xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.2xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 20260.5xVery low
Q1 20260.5xVery low
Q4 20250.6xVery low
Q3 20250.8xVery low
Q2 20250.2xVery low
Q1 20250.3xVery low
Q4 20240.1xVery low
Q3 2024-0.2xNet Cash

BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

BJRI Net Leverage

Q1 2024: 0.5xQ2 2024: 0.4xQ3 2024: 0.5xQ4 2024: 0.5xQ4 2024: 0.5xQ2 2025: 0.7xQ3 2025: 0.3xQ3 2025: 0.6xQ4 2025: 0.5xQ1 2026: 0.3xQ2 2026: 0.2xQ3 2026: 0.0x
Q1 2024: 0.5xQ2 2024: 0.4xQ3 2024: 0.5xQ4 2024: 0.5xQ4 2024: 0.5xQ2 2025: 0.7xQ3 2025: 0.3xQ3 2025: 0.6xQ4 2025: 0.5xQ1 2026: 0.3xQ2 2026: 0.2xQ3 2026: 0.0x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.0xVery low
Q2 20260.2xVery low
Q1 20260.3xVery low
Q4 20250.5xVery low
Q3 20250.6xVery low
Q2 20250.3xVery low
Q1 20250.7xVery low
Q4 20240.5xVery low

BJRI has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

BABA Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI38.0Neutral
Stochastic12.7Oversold

BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).

BJRI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI47.1Neutral
Stochastic16.3Oversold

BJRI's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).

BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricBABASector medianRelative
PE21x18x19% above
PE %604713 pts above

BABA has the edge over BJRI on valuation relative to its sector.

BJRI PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricBJRISector medianRelative
PE26x18x45% above
PE %274720 pts below

BJRI is trading at 26x earnings, a 45% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.

BABA Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$104.79.9% below
20 week MA$111.115% below
50 week MA$128.026% below
100 week MA$127.726% below
200 week MA$106.411% below

BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.

BJRI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$58.96.7% below
20 week MA$62.212% below
50 week MA$49.910% above
100 week MA$43.127% above
200 week MA$37.746% above

BJRI has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

BABA Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$215.5$222.0+3%
2021$222.0$118.7-47%
2022$118.7$85.7-28%
2023$85.7$77.5-9.5%
2024$77.5$85.1+9.7%
2025$85.1$152.2+79%
2026 YTD$152.2$94.4-38%

BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.

BJRI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$37.4$39.1+4.5%
2021$39.1$36.1-7.6%
2022$36.1$27.8-23%
2023$27.8$36.0+30%
2024$36.0$34.7-3.5%
2025$34.7$41.2+19%
2026 YTD$41.2$54.9+33%

BJRI has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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