BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc
BIRK has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
BIRK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
BIRK's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
BIRK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $34.66 | -2.9% |
| Current | 17x | $35.70 | — |
| Fair | 32x | $64.55 | +81% |
| Expensive | 96x | $195 | +447% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BIRK has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over BIRK on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
BIRK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BIRK, with profitability holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
BIRK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $2.04 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.13 | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.26 | +74% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.08 | +84% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.82 | +176% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.50 | +154% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.30 | +177% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.13 | +146% |
BIRK has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BIRK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $812.6M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $698.2M | +9.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $446.5M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $584.7M | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $705.5M | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $638M | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $401.8M | +19% |
| Q3 2024 | $506.3M | +22% |
BIRK has the edge over BABA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 29% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 26% | -4.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | +1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +6 points |
| Q3 2024 | 21% | +15 points |
BIRK has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
BIRK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $224M | -16% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2M | +$43.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$72.7M | -$43.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $145.5M | +3.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $266.7M | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | -$41.3M | -212% |
| Q4 2024 | -$29.2M | +$41.4M |
| Q3 2024 | $140.8M | +32% |
BIRK has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
BIRK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -2.4M shares |
| 1 year | -2.7% | -5M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -1.2M shares |
BIRK has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $260.5M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over BIRK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BIRK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q3 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
BIRK's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.4 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
BIRK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 47.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 39.8 | Neutral |
BIRK's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 40 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
BIRK PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BIRK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 18x | 3.1% below |
| PE % | 20 | 29 | 9 pts below |
BIRK has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BIRK has stronger trend alignment. BABA is above 0 of 5 weekly averages versus BIRK above 1 of 4.
BIRK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $34.2 | 4.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $36.7 | 2.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $38.8 | 8.1% below |
| 100 week MA | $44.3 | 19% below |
BIRK has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 19% below its 100-week average.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
BIRK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $36.4 | $48.7 | +34% |
| 2024 | $48.7 | $59.1 | +21% |
| 2025 | $59.1 | $42.4 | -28% |
| 2026 YTD | $42.4 | $35.7 | -16% |
BIRK has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.