BABA

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

53
Fundamentals36/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

BABA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

BBW

Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.

55
Fundamentals46/ 100
Valuation62/ 100
Upside potential65/ 100
Risk potential22/ 100

BBW has a slight edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.

BABA Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Under pressure
Weak
Healthy

BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.

BBW Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Healthy
Stable
Strong

BBW's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.

BABA PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.3x19x28x37x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.3x19x28x37x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap16x$69.66-26%
Fair20x$86.59-8.2%
Current21x$94.36—
Expensive26x$115+22%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.

BBW PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE33x66x98x131x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE33x66x98x131x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap6.4x$25.92-8.8%
Current7.1x$28.41—
Forward7.7x$28.41—
Fair8.2x$33.17+17%
Expensive12x$49.33+74%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

BBW has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

BABA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

BABA has the edge over BBW on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.

BBW Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Deteriorating
Growth
Stable
Improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect BBW's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.

BABA Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+33%$125.09
Downside-23%$72.35

Calculated from the latest close: $94.36 on Nov 12.

BABA trails BBW on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

BBW Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+41%$40.06
Downside-22%$22.12

Calculated from the latest close: $28.41 on Nov 12.

BBW has a better modeled risk to reward balance than BABA, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

BABA Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $8.12Q4 2023: $6.04Q1 2024: $4.71Q2 2024: $4.29Q3 2024: $5.26Q4 2024: $7.47Q1 2025: $8.06Q2 2025: $9.27Q3 2025: $7.85Q4 2025: $5.79Q1 2026: $6.57Q2 2026: $4.42
Q3 2023: $8.12Q4 2023: $6.04Q1 2024: $4.71Q2 2024: $4.29Q3 2024: $5.26Q4 2024: $7.47Q1 2025: $8.06Q2 2025: $9.27Q3 2025: $7.85Q4 2025: $5.79Q1 2026: $6.57Q2 2026: $4.42
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q2 2026$4.42-52%
Q1 2026$6.57-18%
Q4 2025$5.79-22%
Q3 2025$7.85+49%
Q2 2025$9.27+116%
Q1 2025$8.06+71%
Q4 2024$7.47+24%
Q3 2024$5.26-35%

BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.

BBW Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $3.45Q1 2024: $3.65Q2 2024: $3.49Q3 2024: $3.56Q4 2024: $3.76Q1 2025: $3.80Q2 2025: $4.15Q3 2025: $4.45Q4 2025: $4.34Q1 2026: $3.99Q2 2026: $4.27Q3 2026: $4.03Forward: $3.70
Q4 2023: $3.45Q1 2024: $3.65Q2 2024: $3.49Q3 2024: $3.56Q4 2024: $3.76Q1 2025: $3.80Q2 2025: $4.15Q3 2025: $4.45Q4 2025: $4.34Q1 2026: $3.99Q2 2026: $4.27Q3 2026: $4.03Forward: $3.70
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$3.70-8.3%
Q3 2026$4.03-9.4%
Q2 2026$4.27+2.9%
Q1 2026$3.99+5%
Q4 2025$4.34+15%
Q3 2025$4.45+25%
Q2 2025$4.15+19%
Q1 2025$3.80+4.1%
Q4 2024$3.76+9%

BBW has the edge over BABA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

BABA Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $33.7BQ4 2023: $39.1BQ1 2024: $33.3BQ2 2024: $36.5BQ3 2024: $35.5BQ4 2024: $42BQ1 2025: $35.5BQ2 2025: $37.2BQ3 2025: $37.2BQ4 2025: $42.7BQ1 2026: $36.5BQ2 2026: $40.2B
Q3 2023: $33.7BQ4 2023: $39.1BQ1 2024: $33.3BQ2 2024: $36.5BQ3 2024: $35.5BQ4 2024: $42BQ1 2025: $35.5BQ2 2025: $37.2BQ3 2025: $37.2BQ4 2025: $42.7BQ1 2026: $36.5BQ2 2026: $40.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$40.2B+8.3%
Q1 2026$36.5B+2.9%
Q4 2025$42.7B+1.7%
Q3 2025$37.2B+4.8%
Q2 2025$37.2B+1.8%
Q1 2025$35.5B+6.6%
Q4 2024$42B+7.6%
Q3 2024$35.5B+5.2%

BABA has the edge over BBW on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

BBW Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $108MQ1 2024: $149MQ2 2024: $115MQ3 2024: $112MQ4 2024: $119MQ1 2025: $150MQ2 2025: $128MQ3 2025: $124MQ4 2025: $123MQ1 2026: $155MQ2 2026: $125MQ3 2026: $115M
Q4 2023: $108MQ1 2024: $149MQ2 2024: $115MQ3 2024: $112MQ4 2024: $119MQ1 2025: $150MQ2 2025: $128MQ3 2025: $124MQ4 2025: $123MQ1 2026: $155MQ2 2026: $125MQ3 2026: $115M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$115.3M-7.2%
Q2 2026$125.3M-2.4%
Q1 2026$154.5M+2.7%
Q4 2025$122.7M+2.7%
Q3 2025$124.2M+11%
Q2 2025$128.4M+12%
Q1 2025$150.4M+0.8%
Q4 2024$119.4M+11%

BBW's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $115M last quarter, down 7.2% from the same quarter a year ago.

BABA Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: $5.4BQ4 2023: $11BQ1 2024: $34MQ2 2024: $3.2BQ3 2024: $2.1BQ4 2024: $10.4BQ1 2025: −$4.2BQ2 2025: −$2.7BQ3 2025: −$3.2BQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: −$2.7BQ2 2026: −$6.7B
Q3 2023: $5.4BQ4 2023: $11BQ1 2024: $34MQ2 2024: $3.2BQ3 2024: $2.1BQ4 2024: $10.4BQ1 2025: −$4.2BQ2 2025: −$2.7BQ3 2025: −$3.2BQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: −$2.7BQ2 2026: −$6.7B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026-$6.7B-$4.1B
Q1 2026-$2.7B+$1.5B
Q4 2025$1B-90%
Q3 2025-$3.2B-254%
Q2 2025-$2.7B-182%
Q1 2025-$4.2B-12231%
Q4 2024$10.4B-4.8%
Q3 2024$2.1B-62%

BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.

BBW Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$4MQ1 2024: $24MQ2 2024: $8MQ3 2024: −$1MQ4 2024: $11MQ1 2025: $10MQ2 2025: $25MQ3 2025: $849,000Q4 2025: $2MQ1 2026: $12MQ2 2026: $14MQ3 2026: −$4M
Q4 2023: −$4MQ1 2024: $24MQ2 2024: $8MQ3 2024: −$1MQ4 2024: $11MQ1 2025: $10MQ2 2025: $25MQ3 2025: $849,000Q4 2025: $2MQ1 2026: $12MQ2 2026: $14MQ3 2026: −$4M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$3.6M-528%
Q2 2026$14.4M-42%
Q1 2026$12.1M+24%
Q4 2025$1.7M-85%
Q3 2025$849K+$2.1M
Q2 2025$24.9M+214%
Q1 2025$9.8M-60%
Q4 2024$11.3M+$15.4M

BBW has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

BABA Total Shares

Q3 2023: 2.6BQ4 2023: 2.5BQ1 2024: 2.5BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.4BQ4 2024: 2.4BQ1 2025: 2.4BQ2 2025: 2.4BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.4BQ1 2026: 2.4BQ2 2026: 2.4B
Q3 2023: 2.6BQ4 2023: 2.5BQ1 2024: 2.5BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.4BQ4 2024: 2.4BQ1 2025: 2.4BQ2 2025: 2.4BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.4BQ1 2026: 2.4BQ2 2026: 2.4B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.5%+11.1M shares
1 year+0.9%+21.4M shares
3 years-6.2%-161M shares
5 years-12%-339M shares
Available history-8.4%-221M shares

BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.

BBW Total Shares

Q4 2023: 14MQ1 2024: 14MQ2 2024: 14MQ3 2024: 14MQ4 2024: 13MQ1 2025: 14MQ2 2025: 13MQ3 2025: 13MQ4 2025: 13MQ1 2026: 13MQ2 2026: 13MQ3 2026: 12M
Q4 2023: 14MQ1 2024: 14MQ2 2024: 14MQ3 2024: 14MQ4 2024: 13MQ1 2025: 14MQ2 2025: 13MQ3 2025: 13MQ4 2025: 13MQ1 2026: 13MQ2 2026: 13MQ3 2026: 12M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-1.6%-207K shares
1 year-5.4%-708K shares
3 years-14%-2.1M shares
5 years-23%-3.7M shares
Available history-16%-2.3M shares

BBW has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

BABA Net Leverage

Q3 2023: -0.6xQ4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.4xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: 0.1xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.2xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.5x
Q3 2023: -0.6xQ4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.4xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: 0.1xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.2xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 20260.5xVery low
Q1 20260.5xVery low
Q4 20250.6xVery low
Q3 20250.8xVery low
Q2 20250.2xVery low
Q1 20250.3xVery low
Q4 20240.1xVery low
Q3 2024-0.2xNet Cash

BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

BBW Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -0.3xQ1 2024: -0.6xQ2 2024: -0.5xQ3 2024: -0.3xQ4 2024: -0.4xQ1 2025: -0.3xQ2 2025: -0.5xQ3 2025: -0.4xQ4 2025: -0.3xQ1 2026: -0.3xQ2 2026: -0.3xQ3 2026: -0.2x
Q4 2023: -0.3xQ1 2024: -0.6xQ2 2024: -0.5xQ3 2024: -0.3xQ4 2024: -0.4xQ1 2025: -0.3xQ2 2025: -0.5xQ3 2025: -0.4xQ4 2025: -0.3xQ1 2026: -0.3xQ2 2026: -0.3xQ3 2026: -0.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-0.2xNet Cash
Q2 2026-0.3xNet Cash
Q1 2026-0.3xNet Cash
Q4 2025-0.3xNet Cash
Q3 2025-0.4xNet Cash
Q2 2025-0.5xNet Cash
Q1 2025-0.3xNet Cash
Q4 2024-0.4xNet Cash

BBW has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

BABA Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI38.0Neutral
Stochastic12.7Oversold

BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).

BBW Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI42.9Neutral
Stochastic31.7Neutral

BBW's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 32 (neutral).

BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricBABASector medianRelative
PE21x18x19% above
PE %604713 pts above

BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.

BBW PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricBBWSector medianRelative
PE7.1x18x61% below
PE %264721 pts below

BBW has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.

BABA Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$104.79.9% below
20 week MA$111.115% below
50 week MA$128.026% below
100 week MA$127.726% below
200 week MA$106.411% below

BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.

BBW Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$26.47.5% above
20 week MA$30.26% below
50 week MA$39.628% below
100 week MA$44.035% below
200 week MA$35.319% below

BBW has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

BABA Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$215.5$222.0+3%
2021$222.0$118.7-47%
2022$118.7$85.7-28%
2023$85.7$77.5-9.5%
2024$77.5$85.1+9.7%
2025$85.1$152.2+79%
2026 YTD$152.2$94.4-38%

BABA has the edge over BBW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

BBW Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$3.22$3.96+23%
2021$3.96$17.3+337%
2022$17.3$23.2+34%
2023$23.2$23.0-1%
2024$23.0$46.7+103%
2025$46.7$62.3+34%
2026 YTD$62.3$28.4-54%

BBW is down 54% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in five of the previous six years.

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