BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has the edge over BALL overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
BALL
Ball Corporation
BALL offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
BALL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
BALL's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over BALL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BALL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $64.91 | — |
| Cheap | 16x | $32.46 | -50% |
| Fair | 26x | $52.14 | -20% |
| Current | 33x | $64.91 | — |
| Expensive | 41x | $80.99 | +25% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BALL's PE is in its fair range at 33x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over BALL on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
BALL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BALL, with profitability holding steady.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over BALL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
BALL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.30 | +118% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.97 | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.51 | +82% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.44 | +105% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.30 | -74% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.46 | -81% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.93 | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.68 | -87% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.66 | +468% |
BALL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.97 over the past year, against $13.28 in early 2024.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over BALL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BALL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $4B | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.3B | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.4B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.1B | +7.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.9B | -15% |
BALL's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $4.2B last quarter, up 24% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.5% | -15 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.2% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.2% | +6.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | +4.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8% | +1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.4% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2% | -8.6 points |
BALL's operating margin was −3.5% last quarter, down 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
BALL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $32M | -88% |
| Q2 2026 | $467M | +98% |
| Q1 2026 | -$938M | -$192M |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +165% |
| Q3 2025 | $257M | -48% |
| Q2 2025 | $236M | +62% |
| Q1 2025 | -$746M | +$655M |
| Q4 2024 | $393M | -25% |
BALL has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
BALL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -3.3M shares |
| 1 year | -3.3% | -9.1M shares |
| 3 years | -17% | -53.5M shares |
| 5 years | -20% | -67.8M shares |
| Available history | -22% | -76.3M shares |
BALL has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $157M |
| Q2 2026 | $114M |
| Q1 2026 | $1M |
| Q4 2025 | $215M |
| Q3 2025 | $84M |
| Q2 2025 | $467M |
| Q1 2025 | $555M |
| Q4 2024 | $651M |
BALL spent $487M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 72% from the year before.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over BALL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BALL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.0x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.0x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 3.9x | Elevated |
BALL's net debt is about 5.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.4 years a year ago.
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
BALL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 77.9 | Neutral |
BALL's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 78 (neutral).
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over BALL on valuation relative to its sector.
BALL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BALL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33x | 18x | 83% above |
| PE % | 61 | 47 | 14 pts above |
BALL is trading at 33x earnings, a 83% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
BALL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $62.1 | 4.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $62.4 | 4% above |
| 50 week MA | $60.1 | 8% above |
| 100 week MA | $56.2 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $57.5 | 13% above |
BALL has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.
BALL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $64.7 | $92.3 | +43% |
| 2021 | $92.3 | $90.0 | -2.5% |
| 2022 | $90.0 | $51.6 | -43% |
| 2023 | $51.6 | $57.5 | +11% |
| 2024 | $57.5 | $55.8 | -2.9% |
| 2025 | $55.8 | $52.7 | -5.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.7 | $64.9 | +23% |
BALL has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.