AXTI
AXT, Inc.
AXTI has the edge over TSLA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AXTI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
AXTI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
TSLA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
TSLA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
AXTI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $5.95 | -86% |
| Forward | 18x | $43.54 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $9.92 | -77% |
| Expensive | 96x | $42.09 | -3.3% |
| Current | 99x | $43.54 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AXTI has the edge over TSLA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TSLA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 60x | $54.70 | -86% |
| Fair | 174x | $158 | -60% |
| Forward | 196x | $397 | — |
| Expensive | 415x | $378 | -4.9% |
| Current | 437x | $397 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSLA's PE is in its expensive range at 437x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 196x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AXTI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
AXTI has the edge over TSLA on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
TSLA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TSLA, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AXTI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.40 | +445% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.44 | +$0.95 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.01 | +$0.55 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.32 | +$0.10 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.49 | -$0.22 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.51 | -$0.26 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.54 | -$0.22 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.42 | -$0.02 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.27 | +$0.16 |
AXTI has the edge over TSLA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +123% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.91 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08 | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.50 | -59% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.73 | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.82 | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | -53% |
TSLA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.91 over the past year, against $4.30 in late 2023.
AXTI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $73.4M | +163% |
| Q2 2026 | $47.6M | +165% |
| Q1 2026 | $26.9M | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $23M | -8.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $28M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $18M | -36% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.4M | -15% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.1M | +23% |
AXTI has the edge over TSLA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 39% | +43 points |
| Q2 2026 | 22% | +59 points |
| Q1 2026 | -5.9% | +47 points |
| Q4 2025 | -17% | +7.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | -4% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -38% | -31 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | -38 points |
| Q4 2024 | -25% | -7.1 points |
AXTI has the edge over TSLA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TSLA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.2B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.9B | -3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $28.1B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.3B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.7B | +2.1% |
TSLA's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $28B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | -2 points |
TSLA's operating margin was 2.6% last quarter, down 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
AXTI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $87.7M | +$99M |
| Q2 2026 | $3.6M | +$8.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.1M | -$9.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3M | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | -$11.3M | -$5M |
| Q2 2025 | -$4.9M | -949% |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.9M | +$9.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1M | -48% |
AXTI has the edge over TSLA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | -62% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.1B | -848% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +117% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4B | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $146M | -89% |
| Q1 2025 | $664M | +$3.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -1.6% |
TSLA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $3.3B over the past year.
AXTI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.8% | +2.4M shares |
| 1 year | +51% | +22.2M shares |
| 3 years | +55% | +23.3M shares |
| 5 years | +54% | +23.1M shares |
| Available history | +67% | +26.4M shares |
AXTI has 66M diluted shares, up 51% from a year ago.
TSLA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +15M shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +48M shares |
| 5 years | +5.1% | +172M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +886M shares |
TSLA has the edge over AXTI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
AXTI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -9.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -24.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2023 | 93.9x | High |
| Q1 2023 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2022 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q3 2022 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2022 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2022 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
AXTI has the edge over TSLA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TSLA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
TSLA has more cash than debt.
AXTI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 15.1 | Oversold |
AXTI's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
TSLA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.6 | Neutral |
TSLA's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
AXTI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | AXTI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 99x | 28x | 255% above |
| PE % | 83 | 35 | 48 pts above |
AXTI has the edge over TSLA on valuation relative to its sector.
TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TSLA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 437x | 18x | 2,324% above |
| PE % | 84 | 47 | 37 pts above |
TSLA is trading at 437x earnings, a 2324% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
AXTI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $59.3 | 27% below |
| 20 week MA | $61.9 | 30% below |
| 50 week MA | $58.0 | 25% below |
| 100 week MA | $30.5 | 43% above |
| 200 week MA | $16.8 | 159% above |
AXTI has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 159% above its 200-week average.
TSLA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $376.0 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $364.0 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $393.6 | 1% above |
| 100 week MA | $372.1 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $296.9 | 34% above |
TSLA has the edge over AXTI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AXTI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $4.04 | $9.64 | +139% |
| 2021 | $9.64 | $8.80 | -8.7% |
| 2022 | $8.80 | $4.40 | -50% |
| 2023 | $4.40 | $2.40 | -45% |
| 2024 | $2.40 | $2.28 | -5% |
| 2025 | $2.28 | $15.4 | +574% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.4 | $43.5 | +183% |
AXTI has the edge over TSLA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TSLA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.7 | $220.6 | +669% |
| 2021 | $220.6 | $355.7 | +61% |
| 2022 | $355.7 | $123.2 | -65% |
| 2023 | $123.2 | $248.5 | +102% |
| 2024 | $248.5 | $431.7 | +74% |
| 2025 | $431.7 | $475.2 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $475.2 | $397.5 | -16% |
TSLA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +669% in 2020 to −65% in 2022. It's down 16% so far in 2026.