AXTI
AXT, Inc.
AXTI has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AXTI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
AXTI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
AXTI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $5.95 | -86% |
| Forward | 18x | $43.54 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $9.92 | -77% |
| Expensive | 96x | $42.09 | -3.3% |
| Current | 99x | $43.54 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AXTI's PE is in its expensive range at 99x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over AXTI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AXTI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for AXTI, with profitability improving.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AXTI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.40 | +445% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.44 | +$0.95 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.01 | +$0.55 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.32 | +$0.10 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.49 | -$0.22 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.51 | -$0.26 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.54 | -$0.22 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.42 | -$0.02 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.27 | +$0.16 |
AXTI has returned to profit: it earned $0.44 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
AXTI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $73.4M | +163% |
| Q2 2026 | $47.6M | +165% |
| Q1 2026 | $26.9M | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $23M | -8.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $28M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $18M | -36% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.4M | -15% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.1M | +23% |
AXTI's revenue is growing: $73M last quarter, up 163% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 39% | +43 points |
| Q2 2026 | 22% | +59 points |
| Q1 2026 | -5.9% | +47 points |
| Q4 2025 | -17% | +7.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | -4% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -38% | -31 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | -38 points |
| Q4 2024 | -25% | -7.1 points |
AXTI has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $40.2B last quarter, up 8.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AXTI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $87.7M | +$99M |
| Q2 2026 | $3.6M | +$8.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.1M | -$9.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3M | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | -$11.3M | -$5M |
| Q2 2025 | -$4.9M | -949% |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.9M | +$9.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1M | -48% |
AXTI has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
AXTI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.8% | +2.4M shares |
| 1 year | +51% | +22.2M shares |
| 3 years | +55% | +23.3M shares |
| 5 years | +54% | +23.1M shares |
| Available history | +67% | +26.4M shares |
AXTI has 66M diluted shares, up 51% from a year ago.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over AXTI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
AXTI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -9.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -24.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2023 | 93.9x | High |
| Q1 2023 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2022 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q3 2022 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2022 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2022 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
AXTI has the edge over BABA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AXTI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 15.1 | Oversold |
AXTI's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
AXTI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | AXTI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 99x | 28x | 255% above |
| PE % | 83 | 35 | 48 pts above |
AXTI is trading at 99x earnings, a 255% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over AXTI on valuation relative to its sector.
AXTI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $59.3 | 27% below |
| 20 week MA | $61.9 | 30% below |
| 50 week MA | $58.0 | 25% below |
| 100 week MA | $30.5 | 43% above |
| 200 week MA | $16.8 | 159% above |
AXTI has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
AXTI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $4.04 | $9.64 | +139% |
| 2021 | $9.64 | $8.80 | -8.7% |
| 2022 | $8.80 | $4.40 | -50% |
| 2023 | $4.40 | $2.40 | -45% |
| 2024 | $2.40 | $2.28 | -5% |
| 2025 | $2.28 | $15.4 | +574% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.4 | $43.5 | +183% |
AXTI has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.