AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
AXON offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over AXON overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
AXON Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
AXON's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AXON PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 36x | $307 | — |
| Current | 99x | $307 | — |
| Cheap | 104x | $322 | +4.9% |
| Fair | 152x | $472 | +54% |
| Expensive | 201x | $625 | +103% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AXON has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AXON Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for AXON, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over AXON on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
AXON Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.54 | +174% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.11 | -1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.40 | -41% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.48 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.51 | -69% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.17 | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.06 | +6.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.15 | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.80 | +108% |
AXON's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $3.11 over the past year, against $4.80 in late 2024. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over AXON on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
AXON Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $908.6M | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $904.4M | +35% |
| Q1 2026 | $807.3M | +34% |
| Q4 2025 | $796.7M | +39% |
| Q3 2025 | $710.6M | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | $668.5M | +33% |
| Q1 2025 | $603.6M | +31% |
| Q4 2024 | $575.1M | +33% |
AXON has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.6% | +4.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.2% | +5.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.6% | +5.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | -6.3% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3% | -4.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | -0.1% | -6.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.5% | -5 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2.7% | -13 points |
AXON's operating margin was 4.6% last quarter, up 4.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over AXON on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AXON Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$18.9M | -157% |
| Q2 2026 | -$972K | +$113.7M |
| Q1 2026 | -$54.6M | -5963% |
| Q4 2025 | $155.4M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $33.4M | -49% |
| Q2 2025 | -$114.7M | -260% |
| Q1 2025 | $932K | +$33.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $225.4M | +94% |
AXON usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$19M, but it generated $81M over the past year.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over AXON on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AXON Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +6.7% | +5.3M shares |
| 3 years | +10% | +7.7M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +11.2M shares |
| Available history | +39% | +23.7M shares |
AXON has 84M diluted shares, up 6.7% from a year ago.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over AXON on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
AXON Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 8.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 18.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 28.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 12.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 23.6x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 10.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
AXON's net debt is about 7.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 13 years a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over AXON on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AXON Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.2 | Oversold |
AXON's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AXON PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | AXON | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 99x | 24x | 310% above |
| PE % | 13 | 58 | 45 pts below |
AXON is trading at 99x earnings, a 310% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x, though its earnings don't support one.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over AXON on valuation relative to its sector.
AXON Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $390.6 | 21% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.2 | 37% below |
| 50 week MA | $482.6 | 36% below |
| 100 week MA | $575.2 | 47% below |
| 200 week MA | $429.6 | 29% below |
AXON is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 29% below its 200-week average.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over AXON on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AXON Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $72.9 | $130.8 | +79% |
| 2021 | $130.8 | $160.5 | +23% |
| 2022 | $160.5 | $169.0 | +5.3% |
| 2023 | $169.0 | $258.3 | +53% |
| 2024 | $258.3 | $611.0 | +137% |
| 2025 | $611.0 | $583.8 | -4.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.8 | $307.1 | -47% |
AXON is down 47% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in five of the previous six years.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over AXON on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.