AX
Axos Financial, Inc.
AX offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over AX overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
AX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AX's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AX.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
AX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8x | $70.53 | -23% |
| Forward | 9.1x | $91.29 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $88.40 | -3.2% |
| Current | 10x | $91.29 | — |
| Expensive | 13x | $112 | +23% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AX has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
AX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AX, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
AX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.03 | +14% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.79 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.48 | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.20 | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.86 | +6.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.44 | -9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.43 | -3% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.29 | -0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.39 | +9.5% |
AX earned $8.79 per share over the past year, up 18% from the year before. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over AX on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $395.1M | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $379.8M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $392.2M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $385.1M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $323.4M | +0.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $321.4M | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $308.8M | +4.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $307.9M | -13% |
AX's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $395M last quarter, up 22% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 44% | -2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 41% | -7.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 42% | -5.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 46% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 46% | -3.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 48% | -1.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 48% | -4.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 49% | -13 points |
AX has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over AX on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $235.5M | +115% |
| Q2 2026 | $197.7M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | -$101.2M | -255% |
| Q4 2025 | $85.4M | -45% |
| Q3 2025 | $109.3M | +106% |
| Q2 2025 | $161.6M | +385% |
| Q1 2025 | $65.1M | -39% |
| Q4 2024 | $156.4M | +52% |
AX has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +99.3K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +243K shares |
| 3 years | -3.7% | -2.2M shares |
| 5 years | -4.4% | -2.6M shares |
| Available history | -7.4% | -4.6M shares |
AX has 57M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4M |
| Q2 2026 | $22M |
| Q2 2025 | $32.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $25.9M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $13.1M |
| Q1 2024 | $595,000 |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over AX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
AX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
AX has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.9 | Neutral |
AX's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 36 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AX PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 13x | 20% below |
| PE % | 53 | 63 | 10 pts below |
AX has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $90.0 | 1.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $94.6 | 3.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $91.7 | 0.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $83.4 | 9.4% above |
| 200 week MA | $67.5 | 35% above |
AX's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 35% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
AX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $30.4 | $37.7 | +24% |
| 2021 | $37.7 | $55.1 | +46% |
| 2022 | $55.1 | $37.5 | -32% |
| 2023 | $37.5 | $54.6 | +46% |
| 2024 | $54.6 | $71.3 | +31% |
| 2025 | $71.3 | $88.2 | +24% |
| 2026 YTD | $88.2 | $91.3 | +3.5% |
AX has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 3.5% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over AX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.