AWI
Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
AWI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has a slight edge over AWI overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
AWI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
AWI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AWI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 18x | $136 | -22% |
| Forward | 19x | $175 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $174 | -0.2% |
| Current | 23x | $175 | — |
| Expensive | 28x | $212 | +21% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AWI has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AWI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AWI, with profitability improving.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AWI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.20 | +23% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.49 | +7.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.30 | +8.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.05 | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.08 | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.98 | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.75 | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.24 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.02 | +21% |
AWI has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
AWI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $475.8M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $472M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $409.9M | +7.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $388.3M | +5.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $425.2M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $424.6M | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $382.7M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $367.7M | +18% |
AWI's revenue has grown year over year for 23 quarters in a row: $476M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 28% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 28% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 23% | -2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 28% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 29% | +3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 26% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 22% | +1 points |
AWI has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AWI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $71.5M | -29% |
| Q2 2026 | $69.8M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4M | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $62.2M | +7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $100.3M | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.7M | +65% |
| Q1 2025 | $21.9M | +87% |
| Q4 2024 | $57.8M | +73% |
AWI has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
AWI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -400K shares |
| 1 year | -3% | -1.3M shares |
| 3 years | -5.2% | -2.3M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -5.5M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -7.2M shares |
AWI has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $75.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $76.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $60.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $49.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $27M |
| Q2 2025 | $30.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $22M |
| Q4 2024 | $15M |
AWI spent $263M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 178% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
AWI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
AWI's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over AWI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AWI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 53.0 | Neutral |
AWI's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AWI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | AWI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 24x | 3.1% below |
| PE % | 50 | 58 | 8 pts below |
AWI has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
AWI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $167.1 | 4.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $168.0 | 4% above |
| 50 week MA | $172.7 | 1.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $169.1 | 3.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $134.3 | 30% above |
AWI has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
AWI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $93.9 | $74.3 | -21% |
| 2021 | $74.3 | $114.1 | +54% |
| 2022 | $114.1 | $69.3 | -39% |
| 2023 | $69.3 | $98.3 | +42% |
| 2024 | $98.3 | $143.7 | +46% |
| 2025 | $143.7 | $192.3 | +34% |
| 2026 YTD | $192.3 | $174.7 | -9.2% |
AWI has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 9.2% so far in 2026.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over AWI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.