AVAH
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.
AVAH has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AVAH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
AVAH's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
AVAH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.6x | $9.24 | -25% |
| Current | 8.7x | $12.24 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $12.24 | — |
| Fair | 21x | $29.51 | +141% |
| Expensive | 108x | $151 | +1130% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AVAH's PE is in its cheap range at 8.7x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 14x, in its fair range.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over AVAH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AVAH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
AVAH has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AVAH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.88 | -37% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.40 | +278% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.26 | +1300% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.21 | +3933% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.05 | +$1.11 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.37 | +$0.71 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.09 | +$0.75 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.03 | +$0.63 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.06 | +$0.65 |
AVAH's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $1.40 over the past year, about four times what it earned the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.89 over the past year, up 4.9% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2020.
AVAH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $695.5M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $670.5M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $647.9M | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $662.5M | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $621.9M | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $589.6M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $559.2M | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $519.9M | +8.6% |
AVAH's revenue has grown year over year for 19 quarters in a row: $696M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +3.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +1.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.6% | +1.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | +6.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.3% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.8% | +2.7 points |
AVAH's operating margin was 12% last quarter, up 3.4 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO's revenue is growing: $11.7B last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over AVAH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AVAH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $72.2M | +118% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.9M | +57% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.3M | +$13M |
| Q4 2025 | $49.7M | +271% |
| Q3 2025 | $33.2M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $51.6M | +2751% |
| Q1 2025 | -$8.6M | +$3.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $13.4M | +$16.4M |
AVAH has the edge over NVO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
AVAH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.9% | +4.4M shares |
| 1 year | +3.1% | +7M shares |
| 3 years | +21% | +40.1M shares |
| 5 years | +29% | +51.5M shares |
| Available history | +27% | +49.1M shares |
AVAH has 229M diluted shares, up 3.1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over AVAH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
AVAH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 4.2x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.8x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.3x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 6.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 8.0x | High |
AVAH's net debt is about 3.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.8 years a year ago.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO has the edge over AVAH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AVAH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 69.3 | Neutral |
AVAH's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
AVAH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | AVAH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.7x | 26x | 66% below |
| PE % | 27 | 36 | 9 pts below |
AVAH has the edge over NVO on valuation relative to its sector.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO is trading at 10x earnings, a 60% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
AVAH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.7 | 3.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $11.9 | 2.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $9.34 | 31% above |
| 100 week MA | $7.66 | 60% above |
| 200 week MA | $5.12 | 139% above |
AVAH has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
AVAH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $11.7 | $7.07 | -39% |
| 2022 | $7.07 | $0.77 | -89% |
| 2023 | $0.77 | $2.68 | +248% |
| 2024 | $2.68 | $4.66 | +74% |
| 2025 | $4.66 | $8.62 | +85% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.62 | $12.2 | +42% |
AVAH has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.