ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
WAY
Waystar Holding Corp.
WAY has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
WAY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
WAY's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
WAY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 16x | $28.14 | — |
| Cheap | 34x | $23.39 | -17% |
| Current | 41x | $28.14 | — |
| Fair | 42x | $29.15 | +3.6% |
| Expensive | 81x | $55.94 | +99% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WAY's PE is in its fair range at 41x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
WAY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for WAY, with profitability holding steady.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
WAY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.79 | +160% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.69 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.70 | +46% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.67 | +644% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.61 | +$0.78 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.62 | +$0.98 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.48 | +$0.96 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.09 | +$0.43 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.17 | +$0.14 |
WAY has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $42M last quarter, up 187% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
WAY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $325.6M | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $319.7M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $313.9M | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $303.5M | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $268.7M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $270.7M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $256.4M | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $244.1M | +18% |
WAY's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2022: $326M last quarter, up 21% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | -3.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 24% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 26% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | -2.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | +11 points |
| Q2 2025 | 24% | +20 points |
| Q1 2025 | 25% | +9.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 22% | +3.5 points |
WAY has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
WAY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $93.9M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $43.3M | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $69.6M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $57.2M | -2.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $76.2M | +8.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $58.8M | +1038% |
| Q4 2024 | $58.5M | +933% |
| Q3 2024 | $70.2M | +$86.9M |
WAY has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
WAY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.7% | +1.4M shares |
| 1 year | +8.1% | +14.7M shares |
| 3 years | +18% | +29.3M shares |
| 5 years | +18% | +29.3M shares |
WAY has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | $225,000 |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | $1,000 |
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
WAY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.4x | Elevated |
WAY's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.1 years a year ago.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
WAY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 78.5 | Neutral |
WAY's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 78 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
WAY PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | WAY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 41x | 28x | 46% above |
| PE % | 41 | 19 | 22 pts above |
WAY is trading at 41x earnings, a 46% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
WAY has stronger trend alignment. ASTS is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus WAY above 3 of 4.
WAY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $27.1 | 3.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $25.2 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $25.1 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $31.6 | 11% below |
WAY has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 11% below its 100-week average.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
WAY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $20.7 | $37.9 | +83% |
| 2025 | $37.9 | $33.0 | -13% |
| 2026 YTD | $33.0 | $28.1 | -15% |
WAY has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.