ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
VRNS
Varonis Systems, Inc.
VRNS has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
VRNS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| Unavailable |
VRNS's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, but its profitability is weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
VRNS PE Valuation
VRNS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VRNS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for VRNS, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS has the edge over VRNS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
VRNS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.36 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.32 | -$0.30 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.22 | -$0.30 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.13 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.13 | -$0.27 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.02 | -$0.27 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.92 | -$0.12 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.81 | +$0.13 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.86 | +$0.06 |
VRNS lost $1.32 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $42M last quarter, up 187% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
VRNS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $189.5M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $180M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $173.1M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $173.4M | +9.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $161.6M | +9.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $152.2M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $136.4M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $158.5M | +2.9% |
VRNS's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $189M last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -25% | -2.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | -23% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | -26% | +6.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -17% | -6.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -22% | -6.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | -24% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | -32% | +9.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | -11% | -7.7 points |
VRNS has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
VRNS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $26.6M | -13% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.7M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $50.1M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.7M | +4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $30.4M | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $18M | +65% |
| Q1 2025 | $65.7M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.9M | +140% |
VRNS has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
VRNS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +180K shares |
| 1 year | 0% | +24.1K shares |
| 3 years | +5.1% | +5.6M shares |
| 5 years | +7.4% | +8M shares |
| Available history | +27% | +24.2M shares |
VRNS has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $135M |
| Q4 2025 | $15M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $38.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
VRNS spent $150M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 50% from the year before.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
VRNS Net Leverage
VRNS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
VRNS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.9 | Overbought |
VRNS's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 87 (overbought).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
VRNS PE vs Technology Sector
VRNS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
VRNS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $48.5 | 1.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $46.1 | 6.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $35.7 | 37% above |
| 100 week MA | $41.6 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $40.6 | 21% above |
VRNS has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
VRNS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $26.2 | $56.7 | +117% |
| 2021 | $56.7 | $49.2 | -13% |
| 2022 | $49.2 | $23.4 | -52% |
| 2023 | $23.4 | $45.3 | +93% |
| 2024 | $45.3 | $45.0 | -0.7% |
| 2025 | $45.0 | $33.6 | -25% |
| 2026 YTD | $33.6 | $49.1 | +46% |
VRNS has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.