ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
STUB
StubHub Holdings, Inc.
STUB has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
STUB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
STUB's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its profitability is under pressure.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
STUB PE Valuation
STUB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
STUB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for STUB, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is down 273% for ASTS versus STUB down 6,280%.
STUB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.39 | — |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.18 | -$6.08 |
| Q4 2025 | -$6.33 | -$6.24 |
| Q3 2025 | -$4.43 | -751% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.25 | -127% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.10 | -110% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.09 | -109% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.68 | +$0.72 |
| Q2 2024 | $0.92 | +$1.32 |
STUB lost $6.18 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over STUB on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
STUB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $502M | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $573.1M | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $446M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $449.2M | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $468.1M | +7.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $430.3M | -2.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $397.6M | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $533.4M | +60% |
STUB's revenue is growing: $502M last quarter, up 7.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.4% | +301 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1 points |
| Q4 2025 | -6.2% | -24 points |
| Q3 2025 | -292% | -304 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.8% | -6.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.8% | +7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -7.5 points |
STUB has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
STUB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $321.4M | +3208% |
| Q1 2026 | $298.2M | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.9M | +$10.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $9.7M | -93% |
| Q1 2025 | $151.1M | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2024 | $136.4M | +$168.6M |
| Q1 2024 | $258.7M | +40% |
STUB usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$399M, but it generated $232M over the past year.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
STUB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.7% | +10M shares |
| 1 year | +5.6% | +20.5M shares |
| 3 years | +5.6% | +20.5M shares |
STUB has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $5,000 |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $1M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
STUB has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
STUB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 8.3x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.0x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.8x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 9.3x | High |
| Q2 2024 | 4.7x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 5.3x | High |
| Q4 2023 | 6.2x | High |
STUB's net debt is about 1.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 9.3 years a year ago.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
STUB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.8 | Oversold |
STUB's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
STUB PE vs Technology Sector
STUB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has stronger trend alignment. ASTS is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus STUB above 0 of 3.
STUB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $5.71 | 12% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.22 | 30% below |
| 50 week MA | $9.05 | 44% below |
STUB is in a downtrend: it's below all three of its weekly moving averages, and 44% below its 50-week average.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS has the edge over STUB on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
STUB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $18.5 | $13.3 | -28% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $5.05 | -62% |
STUB has finished every year since 2025 lower, and it's down 62% so far in 2026.