ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
SPSC
SPS Commerce, Inc.
SPSC has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
SPSC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
SPSC's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SPSC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $82.25 | — |
| Current | 36x | $82.25 | — |
| Cheap | 49x | $110 | +33% |
| Fair | 87x | $196 | +138% |
| Expensive | 104x | $235 | +186% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SPSC's PE is in its cheap range at 36x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SPSC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SPSC, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
SPSC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.36 | +137% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.26 | +1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.08 | -4.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.41 | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.46 | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.23 | +6.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.18 | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.14 | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | +16% |
SPSC has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $42M last quarter, up 187% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SPSC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $197.6M | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $197.8M | +5.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $192.1M | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $192.7M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $189.9M | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $187.4M | +22% |
| Q1 2025 | $181.5M | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $170.9M | +18% |
SPSC's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $198M last quarter, up 4.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.3% | -9.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | -1.3 points |
SPSC has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
SPSC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $58.5M | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.4M | +124% |
| Q1 2026 | $48.5M | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $38.2M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $54.6M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.7M | +5.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $33.8M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $34.3M | +21% |
SPSC has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
SPSC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -368K shares |
| 1 year | -4.7% | -1.8M shares |
| 3 years | -3.7% | -1.4M shares |
| 5 years | -2.2% | -806K shares |
| Available history | +0.6% | +207K shares |
SPSC has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $48.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $51.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $47.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $24.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $30M |
| Q2 2025 | $19.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $40M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
SPSC spent $172M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 92% from the year before.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
SPSC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
SPSC has more cash than debt.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
SPSC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 55.5 | Neutral |
SPSC's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SPSC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | SPSC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36x | 28x | 31% above |
| PE % | 8 | 35 | 27 pts below |
SPSC is trading at 36x earnings, a 31% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
SPSC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $84.2 | 2.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $77.9 | 5.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $71.5 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $101.7 | 19% below |
| 200 week MA | $139.3 | 41% below |
SPSC has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
SPSC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $56.1 | $110.3 | +97% |
| 2021 | $110.3 | $143.8 | +30% |
| 2022 | $143.8 | $127.3 | -11% |
| 2023 | $127.3 | $193.8 | +52% |
| 2024 | $193.8 | $185.5 | -4.3% |
| 2025 | $185.5 | $91.9 | -50% |
| 2026 YTD | $91.9 | $82.3 | -11% |
SPSC has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.