ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
RSKD
Riskified Ltd.
RSKD has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
RSKD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
RSKD's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RSKD PE Valuation
RSKD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RSKD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for RSKD, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
RSKD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.38 | — |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.11 | +$0.13 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.12 | +$0.10 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.17 | +$0.03 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.23 | -$0.03 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.24 | +$0.02 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.22 | +$0.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.20 | +$0.13 |
| Q3 2024 | -$0.20 | +$0.19 |
RSKD has the edge over ASTS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $42M last quarter, up 187% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
RSKD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $98.7M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $88.3M | +7.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $99.3M | +6.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $81.9M | +3.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $81.1M | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $82.4M | +7.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $93.5M | +11% |
| Q3 2024 | $78.8M | +9.7% |
RSKD's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $99M last quarter, up 22% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -7.5% | +8.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | -6.7% | +14 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.3% | +8.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | -11% | +7.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +2 points |
| Q1 2025 | -21% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -3.6% | +4.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | -18% | +17 points |
RSKD has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
RSKD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $13.1M | +146% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.4M | +158% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.7M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.4M | -3.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.3M | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.6M | -65% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.6M | +48% |
| Q3 2024 | $13.9M | +279% |
RSKD has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
RSKD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -5.5% | -8.1M shares |
| 1 year | -12% | -19.8M shares |
| 3 years | -21% | -36.3M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -18.2M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -18.3M shares |
RSKD has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $66M |
| Q1 2026 | $27.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $40.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $25.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $23.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $20.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $24.6M |
| Q3 2024 | $47M |
RSKD spent $159M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 38% from the year before.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
RSKD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -38.4x | Net Cash |
RSKD has more cash than debt.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
RSKD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 74.4 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 79.4 | Neutral |
RSKD's weekly RSI is 74 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 79 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RSKD PE vs Technology Sector
RSKD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
RSKD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $8.51 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $6.83 | 38% above |
| 50 week MA | $5.48 | 72% above |
| 100 week MA | $5.17 | 82% above |
| 200 week MA | $5.08 | 85% above |
RSKD has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
RSKD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $27.4 | $8.00 | -71% |
| 2022 | $8.00 | $4.72 | -41% |
| 2023 | $4.72 | $4.68 | -0.8% |
| 2024 | $4.68 | $4.75 | +1.5% |
| 2025 | $4.75 | $5.01 | +5.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.01 | $9.42 | +88% |
RSKD has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.