ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RPD
Rapid7, Inc.
RPD has the edge over ASTS overall on the model score.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
RPD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
RPD's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RPD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 7.5x | $14.40 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $4.52 | -69% |
| Fair | 42x | $8.79 | -39% |
| Expensive | 57x | $12.05 | -16% |
| Current | 69x | $14.40 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
RPD's PE is in its expensive range at 69x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 7.5x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RPD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RPD's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
RPD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.91 | +809% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.21 | -46% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.31 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.35 | -20% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.36 | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.39 | -43% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.46 | +$1.25 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.44 | +$2.44 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.44 | +$2.90 |
RPD has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over RPD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
RPD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $212.4M | -2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $210.9M | -1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $209.7M | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $217.4M | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $218M | +1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $214.2M | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $210.3M | +2.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $216.3M | +5.4% |
RPD's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $212M last quarter, down 2.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.2% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.1% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7% | -3.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1% | -5.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7% | -3.7 points |
RPD has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
RPD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $29.9M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $35.8M | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $37.7M | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $36.4M | -42% |
| Q3 2025 | $34.8M | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | $46.6M | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $28.4M | -6.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $62.6M | -0.8% |
RPD has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
RPD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.3% | +2.3M shares |
| 1 year | +7.7% | +5M shares |
| 3 years | +15% | +9.1M shares |
| 5 years | +25% | +14.2M shares |
| Available history | +44% | +21.4M shares |
RPD has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
RPD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -7.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -4.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
RPD has more cash than debt.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
RPD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 61.9 | Neutral |
RPD's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RPD PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | RPD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 69x | 28x | 146% above |
| PE % | 97 | 35 | 62 pts above |
RPD is trading at 69x earnings, a 146% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
RPD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.8 | 4% above |
| 20 week MA | $12.3 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $10.3 | 39% above |
| 100 week MA | $17.7 | 19% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.7 | 55% below |
RPD has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
RPD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $57.3 | $89.3 | +56% |
| 2021 | $89.3 | $121.4 | +36% |
| 2022 | $121.4 | $33.8 | -72% |
| 2023 | $33.8 | $57.1 | +69% |
| 2024 | $57.1 | $40.2 | -30% |
| 2025 | $40.2 | $15.4 | -62% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.4 | $14.4 | -6.5% |
RPD has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.