ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PUBM
PubMatic, Inc.
PUBM has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PUBM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
PUBM's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PUBM PE Valuation
PUBM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 99x next year's earnings.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PUBM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect PUBM to return to profit, with revenue growing.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
PUBM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.19 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.05 | +$0.14 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.30 | -$0.23 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.38 | -575% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.31 | -235% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.19 | -246% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.07 | -139% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.08 | +167% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.23 | +$0.26 |
PUBM lost $0.05 per share over the past year, a smaller loss than the year before.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over PUBM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
PUBM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $79.6M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $78.6M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $62.6M | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $80M | -6.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $68M | -5.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $71.1M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $63.8M | -4.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $85.5M | +1.1% |
PUBM's revenue is growing: $80M last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +23 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.7% | +8.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | -24% | -5.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -6.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | -12% | -11 points |
| Q2 2025 | -7.7% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -19% | -10 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | -6.8 points |
PUBM has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
PUBM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.9M | -25% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.3M | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.3M | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.3M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $27.7M | +274% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.6M | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2M | -40% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.7M | -42% |
PUBM has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
PUBM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.3% | +4.3M shares |
| 1 year | +9.8% | +4.5M shares |
| 3 years | -9.9% | -5.6M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -6.1M shares |
| Available history | +16% | +6.8M shares |
PUBM has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15M |
| Q2 2026 | $22M |
| Q1 2026 | $8.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $4M |
| Q2 2025 | $38.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $5M |
| Q4 2024 | $9.9M |
PUBM spent $47M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 19% from the year before.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PUBM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | -83.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -13.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
PUBM has more cash than debt.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
PUBM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 71.0 | Neutral |
PUBM's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 71 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PUBM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PUBM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
PUBM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
PUBM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $17.8 | 7% above |
| 20 week MA | $16.3 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $12.0 | 59% above |
| 100 week MA | $11.4 | 66% above |
| 200 week MA | $14.1 | 35% above |
PUBM has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
PUBM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $25.1 | $30.4 | +22% |
| 2021 | $30.4 | $34.8 | +14% |
| 2022 | $34.8 | $12.6 | -64% |
| 2023 | $12.6 | $16.3 | +29% |
| 2024 | $16.3 | $15.1 | -7.4% |
| 2025 | $15.1 | $8.98 | -41% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.98 | $19.0 | +112% |
PUBM has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.