ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PTRN
Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock
PTRN has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PTRN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
PTRN's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PTRN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 24x | $18.66 | -11% |
| Fair | 25x | $19.54 | -6.7% |
| Expensive | 27x | $20.44 | -2.5% |
| Current | 27x | $20.95 | — |
| Forward | 28x | $20.95 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PTRN's PE is 27x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PTRN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for PTRN, with profitability improving.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
PTRN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.76 | -1.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.77 | +$2.68 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.60 | -544% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.66 | -603% |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.73 | -658% |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.91 | -782% |
PTRN has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $42M last quarter, up 187% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
PTRN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $885.8M | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $876.8M | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $773.7M | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $723.1M | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $639.7M | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $598.2M | +39% |
| Q1 2025 | $540.4M | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $515.5M | +31% |
PTRN's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2024: $886M last quarter, up 38% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.2% | +14 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4% | -1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6% | -0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | -9.4% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.4% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.5% | +0.5 points |
PTRN has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
PTRN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.8M | +$7.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $63.3M | +47% |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.3M | -1297% |
| Q1 2025 | $43.2M | +26% |
PTRN generated $106M in free cash flow over the past year, up 42% from the year before.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has the edge over PTRN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
PTRN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.7% | +1.2M shares |
| 1 year | +79% | +80.7M shares |
PTRN has 182M diluted shares, up 79% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $94,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $3.6M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PTRN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -5.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -7.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
PTRN has more cash than debt.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
PTRN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 36.8 | Neutral |
PTRN's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PTRN PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
PTRN has stronger trend alignment. ASTS is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus PTRN above 3 of 3.
PTRN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $17.8 | 18% above |
| 20 week MA | $20.8 | 0.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $16.9 | 24% above |
PTRN is in an uptrend: it's above all three of its weekly moving averages, and 24% above its 50-week average.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
PTRN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $15.6 | $11.8 | -24% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.8 | $21.0 | +77% |
PTRN has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.