ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PRGS
Progress Software Corporation
PRGS has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PRGS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
PRGS's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PRGS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 6.7x | $43.44 | — |
| Current | 20x | $43.44 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $53.38 | +23% |
| Fair | 31x | $66.66 | +53% |
| Expensive | 38x | $81.69 | +88% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PRGS's PE is in its cheap range at 20x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 6.7x next year's earnings.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PRGS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PRGS, but weaker profitability.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
PRGS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.46 | +198% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.17 | +101% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.06 | +60% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.95 | +54% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.66 | +7.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.08 | -43% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.29 | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.27 | -18% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.54 | -1.9% |
PRGS has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over PRGS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
PRGS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $246M | -1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $253.5M | +6.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $247.8M | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $252.7M | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $249.8M | +40% |
| Q2 2025 | $237.4M | +36% |
| Q1 2025 | $238M | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $215M | +21% |
PRGS's revenue is growing: $246M last quarter, down 1.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | +5.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +5.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | -5.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | -2.7 points |
PRGS has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
PRGS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $86.3M | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $77M | +161% |
| Q1 2026 | $95.9M | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $59.9M | +257% |
| Q3 2025 | $72.4M | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5M | -53% |
| Q1 2025 | $67.7M | -3.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.8M | -45% |
PRGS has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
PRGS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2% | -832K shares |
| 1 year | -5.1% | -2.2M shares |
| 3 years | -7.8% | -3.5M shares |
| 5 years | -6.8% | -3M shares |
| Available history | -8.5% | -3.9M shares |
PRGS has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $16.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $34.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $20.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $40M |
| Q3 2025 | $15M |
| Q2 2025 | $20M |
| Q1 2025 | $30.1M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
PRGS spent $112M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 72% from the year before.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PRGS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
PRGS's net debt is about 3.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
PRGS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.9 | Neutral |
PRGS's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PRGS PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PRGS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20x | 28x | 28% below |
| PE % | 8 | 35 | 27 pts below |
PRGS is trading at 20x earnings, a 28% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
PRGS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $41.9 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $41.5 | 4.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $37.8 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $45.5 | 4.5% below |
| 200 week MA | $51.1 | 15% below |
PRGS has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
PRGS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $41.7 | $44.2 | +6% |
| 2021 | $44.2 | $48.3 | +9.3% |
| 2022 | $48.3 | $50.5 | +4.4% |
| 2023 | $50.5 | $54.3 | +7.6% |
| 2024 | $54.3 | $65.5 | +21% |
| 2025 | $65.5 | $43.5 | -34% |
| 2026 YTD | $43.5 | $43.4 | -0.2% |
PRGS has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.