ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
PGY has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PGY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
PGY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PGY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 7.5x | $16.87 | — |
| Current | 10x | $16.87 | — |
| Cheap | 12x | $20.59 | +22% |
| Fair | 14x | $23.20 | +38% |
| Expensive | 15x | $26.10 | +55% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PGY's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PGY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PGY, with profitability improving.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
PGY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.24 | +33% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.69 | +$4.52 |
| Q2 2026 | $1.40 | +$5.39 |
| Q1 2026 | $1.11 | +$6.34 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.93 | +$6.59 |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.83 | -$0.30 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.99 | -$2.06 |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.23 | -$3.82 |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.66 | -$3.55 |
PGY has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $42M last quarter, up 187% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
PGY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $390.5M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $387M | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $317.9M | +9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $334.8M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $350.2M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $326.4M | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | $290M | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $279.4M | +33% |
PGY's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $390M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 29% | +6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 27% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | +8.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | +12 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | +14 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +15 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | +13 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | +6.3 points |
PGY has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
PGY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $45.8M | -28% |
| Q2 2026 | $71.3M | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $40M | +31% |
| Q4 2025 | $76.7M | +173% |
| Q3 2025 | $63.8M | +$69.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $53.6M | +382% |
| Q1 2025 | $30.7M | +100% |
| Q4 2024 | $28.1M | +96% |
PGY has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
PGY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.3% | +1.2M shares |
| 1 year | +8.2% | +7.4M shares |
| 3 years | +62% | +37.8M shares |
| 5 years | +510% | +82.3M shares |
PGY has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PGY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
PGY's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
PGY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 24.3 | Neutral |
PGY's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PGY PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PGY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 28x | 64% below |
| PE % | 0 | 42 | 42 pts below |
PGY is trading at 10x earnings, a 64% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
PGY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.0 | 6.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $19.1 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $17.4 | 2.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.8 | 10% below |
| 200 week MA | $16.7 | 1.1% above |
PGY has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 1.1% above its 200-week average.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
PGY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $117.2 | $118.7 | +1.2% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $10.1 | -92% |
| 2023 | $10.1 | $16.6 | +65% |
| 2024 | $16.6 | $9.65 | -42% |
| 2025 | $9.65 | $21.9 | +126% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.9 | $16.9 | -23% |
PGY has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.