ASTS

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

49
Fundamentals66/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential65/ 100
Risk potential46/ 100

ASTS trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.

79
Fundamentals79/ 100
Valuation91/ 100
Upside potential86/ 100
Risk potential9/ 100

NFLX has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.

ASTS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Weak
Weak
Unavailable

ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

NFLX Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Strong

NFLX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

ASTS PE Valuation

ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

NFLX PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE29x59x88x117x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE29x59x88x117x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward17x$62.69—
Current18x$62.69—
Cheap27x$94.95+51%
Fair47x$161+157%
Expensive81x$281+348%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

NFLX's PE is in its cheap range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings.

ASTS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses growing
Strong growth
--
Limited
Low

Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

NFLX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Stable
Strong growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Moderate
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NFLX, with profitability improving.

ASTS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+86%$64.16
Downside-46%$18.77

Calculated from the latest close: $34.50 on Nov 12.

ASTS trails NFLX on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

NFLX Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+57%$98.20
Downside-9%$56.77

Calculated from the latest close: $62.69 on Nov 12.

NFLX has a better modeled risk to reward balance than ASTS, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

ASTS Earnings Per Share

Q1 2024: $-0.98Q2 2024: $-1.25Q3 2024: $-2.12Q4 2024: $-1.95Q1 2025: $-1.99Q2 2025: $-1.89Q3 2025: $-1.24Q4 2025: $-1.34Q1 2026: $-1.80Q2 2026: $-2.16Q3 2026: $-2.15
Q1 2024: $-0.98Q2 2024: $-1.25Q3 2024: $-2.12Q4 2024: $-1.95Q1 2025: $-1.99Q2 2025: $-1.89Q3 2025: $-1.24Q4 2025: $-1.34Q1 2026: $-1.80Q2 2026: $-2.16Q3 2026: $-2.15
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$2.15-$0.91
Q2 2026-$2.16-$0.27
Q1 2026-$1.80+$0.19
Q4 2025-$1.34+$0.61
Q3 2025-$1.24+$0.88
Q2 2025-$1.89-$0.64
Q1 2025-$1.99-$1.01
Q4 2022-$0.58-$0.21

ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.

NFLX Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.20Q1 2024: $1.44Q2 2024: $1.60Q3 2024: $1.77Q4 2024: $1.98Q1 2025: $2.12Q2 2025: $2.35Q3 2025: $2.39Q4 2025: $2.53Q1 2026: $3.10Q2 2026: $3.18Q3 2026: $3.46Forward: $3.58
Q4 2023: $1.20Q1 2024: $1.44Q2 2024: $1.60Q3 2024: $1.77Q4 2024: $1.98Q1 2025: $2.12Q2 2025: $2.35Q3 2025: $2.39Q4 2025: $2.53Q1 2026: $3.10Q2 2026: $3.18Q3 2026: $3.46Forward: $3.58
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$3.58+3.5%
Q3 2026$3.46+45%
Q2 2026$3.18+35%
Q1 2026$3.10+46%
Q4 2025$2.53+28%
Q3 2025$2.39+35%
Q2 2025$2.35+47%
Q1 2025$2.12+47%
Q4 2024$1.98+65%

NFLX has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

ASTS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $0Q1 2024: $500,000Q2 2024: $900,000Q3 2024: $1MQ4 2024: $2MQ1 2025: $718,000Q2 2025: $1MQ3 2025: $15MQ4 2025: $54MQ1 2026: $15MQ2 2026: $32MQ3 2026: $42M
Q4 2023: $0Q1 2024: $500,000Q2 2024: $900,000Q3 2024: $1MQ4 2024: $2MQ1 2025: $718,000Q2 2025: $1MQ3 2025: $15MQ4 2025: $54MQ1 2026: $15MQ2 2026: $32MQ3 2026: $42M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$42.3M+187%
Q2 2026$31.5M+2627%
Q1 2026$14.7M+1952%
Q4 2025$54.3M+2731%
Q3 2025$14.7M+1240%
Q2 2025$1.2M+28%
Q1 2025$718K+44%
Q3 2022$4.2M+70%

ASTS's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $42M last quarter, up 187% from the same quarter a year ago.

NFLX Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $8.8BQ1 2024: $9.4BQ2 2024: $9.6BQ3 2024: $9.8BQ4 2024: $10.2BQ1 2025: $10.5BQ2 2025: $11.1BQ3 2025: $11.5BQ4 2025: $12.1BQ1 2026: $12.2BQ2 2026: $12.6BQ3 2026: $12.9B
Q4 2023: $8.8BQ1 2024: $9.4BQ2 2024: $9.6BQ3 2024: $9.8BQ4 2024: $10.2BQ1 2025: $10.5BQ2 2025: $11.1BQ3 2025: $11.5BQ4 2025: $12.1BQ1 2026: $12.2BQ2 2026: $12.6BQ3 2026: $12.9B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$12.9B+12%
Q2 2026$12.6B+13%
Q1 2026$12.2B+16%
Q4 2025$12.1B+18%
Q3 2025$11.5B+17%
Q2 2025$11.1B+16%
Q1 2025$10.5B+13%
Q4 2024$10.2B+16%

NFLX's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $12.9B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.

ASTS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$47MQ1 2024: −$88MQ2 2024: −$38MQ3 2024: −$64MQ4 2024: −$110MQ1 2025: −$149MQ2 2025: −$354MQ3 2025: −$303MQ4 2025: −$331MQ1 2026: −$310MQ2 2026: −$695MQ3 2026: −$464M
Q4 2023: −$47MQ1 2024: −$88MQ2 2024: −$38MQ3 2024: −$64MQ4 2024: −$110MQ1 2025: −$149MQ2 2025: −$354MQ3 2025: −$303MQ4 2025: −$331MQ1 2026: −$310MQ2 2026: −$695MQ3 2026: −$464M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$464.2M-$161.4M
Q2 2026-$694.8M-$341.1M
Q1 2026-$309.7M-$160.7M
Q4 2025-$330.7M-$220.3M
Q3 2025-$302.9M-$239.1M
Q2 2025-$353.6M-$315.3M
Q1 2025-$149M-$61.3M
Q4 2024-$110.5M-$63.2M

ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.

NFLX Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $1.6BQ1 2024: $2.1BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $2.2BQ4 2024: $1.4BQ1 2025: $2.7BQ2 2025: $2.3BQ3 2025: $2.7BQ4 2025: $1.9BQ1 2026: $5.1BQ2 2026: $1.5BQ3 2026: $2.9B
Q4 2023: $1.6BQ1 2024: $2.1BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $2.2BQ4 2024: $1.4BQ1 2025: $2.7BQ2 2025: $2.3BQ3 2025: $2.7BQ4 2025: $1.9BQ1 2026: $5.1BQ2 2026: $1.5BQ3 2026: $2.9B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$2.9B+8.4%
Q2 2026$1.5B-33%
Q1 2026$5.1B+91%
Q4 2025$1.9B+36%
Q3 2025$2.7B+21%
Q2 2025$2.3B+87%
Q1 2025$2.7B+25%
Q4 2024$1.4B-13%

NFLX has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

ASTS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 90MQ1 2024: 121MQ2 2024: 141MQ3 2024: 156MQ4 2024: 199MQ1 2025: 224MQ2 2025: 242MQ3 2025: 273MQ4 2025: 256MQ1 2026: 291MQ2 2026: 299MQ3 2026: 300M
Q4 2023: 90MQ1 2024: 121MQ2 2024: 141MQ3 2024: 156MQ4 2024: 199MQ1 2025: 224MQ2 2025: 242MQ3 2025: 273MQ4 2025: 256MQ1 2026: 291MQ2 2026: 299MQ3 2026: 300M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.4%+1.1M shares
1 year+10%+27.3M shares
3 years+235%+211M shares
5 years+480%+248M shares
Available history+944%+271M shares

ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.

NFLX Total Shares

Q4 2023: 4.5BQ1 2024: 4.4BQ2 2024: 4.4BQ3 2024: 4.4BQ4 2024: 4.4BQ1 2025: 4.4BQ2 2025: 4.3BQ3 2025: 4.3BQ4 2025: 4.3BQ1 2026: 4.3BQ2 2026: 4.3BQ3 2026: 4.2B
Q4 2023: 4.5BQ1 2024: 4.4BQ2 2024: 4.4BQ3 2024: 4.4BQ4 2024: 4.4BQ1 2025: 4.4BQ2 2025: 4.3BQ3 2025: 4.3BQ4 2025: 4.3BQ1 2026: 4.3BQ2 2026: 4.3BQ3 2026: 4.2B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-1.6%-66.2M shares
1 year-3.3%-145M shares
3 years-6.8%-305M shares
5 years-7.8%-354M shares
Available history-7.1%-323M shares

NFLX has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

ASTS Net Leverage

ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

NFLX Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 0.9xQ2 2024: 0.8xQ3 2024: 0.9xQ4 2024: 0.7xQ1 2025: 0.7xQ2 2025: 0.5xQ3 2025: 0.4xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.4xQ3 2026: 0.4x
Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 0.9xQ2 2024: 0.8xQ3 2024: 0.9xQ4 2024: 0.7xQ1 2025: 0.7xQ2 2025: 0.5xQ3 2025: 0.4xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.4xQ3 2026: 0.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.4xVery low
Q2 20260.4xVery low
Q1 20260.2xVery low
Q4 20250.4xVery low
Q3 20250.4xVery low
Q2 20250.5xVery low
Q1 20250.7xVery low
Q4 20240.7xVery low

NFLX's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

ASTS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI34.1Neutral
Stochastic11.9Oversold

ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).

NFLX Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI33.2Neutral
Stochastic6.0Oversold

NFLX's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 6 (oversold).

ASTS PE vs Technology Sector

ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

NFLX PE vs Communication Services Sector

MetricNFLXSector medianRelative
PE18x16x9.8% above
PE %42622 pts below

NFLX is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Communication Services sector's median of 16x.

ASTS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$44.923% below
20 week MA$57.140% below
50 week MA$75.554% below
100 week MA$57.840% below
200 week MA$33.62.8% above

ASTS has the edge over NFLX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

NFLX Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$66.65.9% below
20 week MA$71.813% below
50 week MA$82.424% below
100 week MA$96.035% below
200 week MA$74.416% below

NFLX is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 16% below its 200-week average.

ASTS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$9.87$13.4+36%
2021$13.4$8.71-35%
2022$8.71$3.97-54%
2023$3.97$6.03+52%
2024$6.03$22.9+280%
2025$22.9$72.0+214%
2026 YTD$72.0$34.5-52%

ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.

NFLX Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$32.9$51.4+56%
2021$51.4$61.4+19%
2022$61.4$29.5-52%
2023$29.5$48.7+65%
2024$48.7$90.8+86%
2025$90.8$94.5+4.1%
2026 YTD$94.5$62.7-34%

NFLX has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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