ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NCNO
nCino, Inc.
NCNO has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NCNO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
NCNO's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NCNO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $22.36 | — |
| Cheap | 72x | $21.56 | -3.6% |
| Current | 75x | $22.36 | — |
| Fair | 133x | $40.02 | +79% |
| Expensive | 333x | $99.88 | +347% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NCNO's PE is 75x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NCNO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NCNO, with profitability improving.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
NCNO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.51 | +405% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.30 | +$0.58 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.12 | +$0.37 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.05 | +$0.38 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.17 | $0.00 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.28 | -$0.01 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.25 | +$0.06 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.33 | +$0.05 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.17 | +$0.41 |
NCNO has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $42M last quarter, up 187% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NCNO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $161M | +8.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $159.4M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $149.7M | +5.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $152.2M | +9.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $148.8M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $144.1M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $141.4M | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $138.8M | +14% |
NCNO's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $161M last quarter, up 8.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +14 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9% | +5.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.7% | +8.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | -6.3% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -4.1% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | -0.6% | +10 points |
NCNO has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
NCNO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34M | +170% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.8M | +54% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.5M | +$22.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9M | -3.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.6M | +176% |
| Q2 2025 | $52.6M | -2.8% |
| Q1 2025 | -$10.4M | -234% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.1M | -2.9% |
NCNO has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
NCNO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.7% | -4.1M shares |
| 1 year | -8.6% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -6.3% | -7M shares |
| 5 years | +10% | +9.7M shares |
| Available history | +18% | +15.7M shares |
NCNO has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $65.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $110.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $25M |
| Q4 2025 | $39.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $20M |
| Q2 2025 | $40.6M |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
NCNO spent $240M buying back its own shares over the past year.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NCNO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | -5.0x | Net Cash |
NCNO's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.5 years a year ago.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
NCNO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 77.0 | Neutral |
NCNO's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 77 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NCNO PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NCNO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 75x | 28x | 168% above |
| PE % | 19 | 37 | 18 pts below |
NCNO is trading at 75x earnings, a 168% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
NCNO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $21.2 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $20.3 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.4 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $23.8 | 6.2% below |
| 200 week MA | $27.2 | 18% below |
NCNO has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
NCNO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $74.0 | $78.7 | +6.3% |
| 2021 | $78.7 | $57.0 | -28% |
| 2022 | $57.0 | $25.9 | -55% |
| 2023 | $25.9 | $33.6 | +30% |
| 2024 | $33.6 | $34.4 | +2.4% |
| 2025 | $34.4 | $26.3 | -24% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.3 | $22.4 | -15% |
NCNO has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.