ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NATL
NCR Atleos Corporation
NATL has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NATL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
NATL's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NATL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 9.8x | $48.24 | — |
| Current | 14x | $48.24 | — |
| Cheap | 18x | $62.59 | +30% |
| Fair | 20x | $68.98 | +43% |
| Expensive | 22x | $76.66 | +59% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NATL's PE is in its cheap range at 14x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.8x next year's earnings.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NATL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect NATL's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
NATL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.91 | +40% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.51 | +104% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.58 | +52% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.32 | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.26 | +97% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.72 | +$3.46 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.70 | +$4.58 |
NATL has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over NATL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NATL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +4% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +4% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $980M | -6.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | +0.9% |
NATL's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $1.1B last quarter, down 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | +6.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | +0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.8% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.8% | +2.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +10 points |
NATL has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
NATL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $147M | +$152M |
| Q2 2026 | $4M | +$48M |
| Q1 2026 | -$36M | -138% |
| Q4 2025 | $194M | +213% |
| Q3 2025 | -$5M | -106% |
| Q2 2025 | -$44M | -$30M |
| Q1 2025 | $94M | -24% |
| Q4 2024 | $62M | +$92M |
NATL has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
NATL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +300K shares |
| 1 year | +0.1% | +100K shares |
| 3 years | +7.8% | +5.5M shares |
NATL has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $16M |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NATL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.7x | Elevated |
NATL's net debt is about 2.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.3 years a year ago.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
NATL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 62.7 | Neutral |
NATL's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 63 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NATL PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NATL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 28x | 51% below |
| PE % | 1 | 18 | 17 pts below |
NATL is trading at 14x earnings, a 51% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
NATL has stronger trend alignment. ASTS is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus NATL above 4 of 4.
NATL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $46.5 | 3.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $46.4 | 4% above |
| 50 week MA | $43.9 | 9.9% above |
| 100 week MA | $37.9 | 27% above |
NATL is in an uptrend: it's above all four of its weekly moving averages, and 27% above its 100-week average.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
NATL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $22.4 | $24.3 | +8.5% |
| 2024 | $24.3 | $34.3 | +41% |
| 2025 | $34.3 | $39.0 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $39.0 | $48.2 | +24% |
NATL has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.