ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ITRI
Itron, Inc.
ITRI has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ITRI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
ITRI's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ITRI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $96.41 | — |
| Current | 16x | $96.41 | — |
| Cheap | 17x | $104 | +7.7% |
| Fair | 25x | $155 | +61% |
| Expensive | 58x | $357 | +270% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ITRI's PE is in its cheap range at 16x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ITRI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ITRI, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
ITRI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.78 | +9.7% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.18 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.98 | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.26 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.50 | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.56 | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.85 | +44% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.48 | +57% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.18 | +145% |
ITRI has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over ITRI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ITRI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $599.3M | +3% |
| Q2 2026 | $562.9M | -7.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $587M | -3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $571.7M | -6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $581.6M | -5.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $606.8M | -0.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $607.2M | +0.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $612.9M | +6.2% |
ITRI's revenue has held roughly level: $599M last quarter, up 3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | +1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | -1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | +3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | +2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | +1.7 points |
ITRI has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
ITRI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $95.5M | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $81.5M | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $79M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $111.5M | +59% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.4M | +93% |
| Q2 2025 | $90.7M | +103% |
| Q1 2025 | $67.5M | +98% |
| Q4 2024 | $70.2M | +78% |
ITRI has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
ITRI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -197K shares |
| 1 year | -4.8% | -2.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.3% | -1.5M shares |
| 5 years | -1.8% | -829K shares |
| Available history | +11% | +4.4M shares |
ITRI has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $52.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $100M |
| Q4 2025 | $100M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
ITRI spent $252M buying back its own shares over the past year.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ITRI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
ITRI's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
ITRI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 62.0 | Neutral |
ITRI's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ITRI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ITRI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 28x | 44% below |
| PE % | 13 | 35 | 22 pts below |
ITRI is trading at 16x earnings, a 44% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
ITRI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $90.4 | 6.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $92.4 | 4.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $91.5 | 5.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $102.9 | 6.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $92.0 | 4.8% above |
ITRI has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
ITRI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $83.8 | $93.9 | +12% |
| 2021 | $93.9 | $66.6 | -29% |
| 2022 | $66.6 | $49.6 | -26% |
| 2023 | $49.6 | $75.5 | +52% |
| 2024 | $75.5 | $109.2 | +45% |
| 2025 | $109.2 | $96.5 | -12% |
| 2026 YTD | $96.5 | $96.4 | -0.1% |
ITRI has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.