ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
IPM
Intelligent Protection Management Corp.
IPM has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
IPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
IPM's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its profitability is under pressure.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IPM PE Valuation
IPM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
IPM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for IPM, with profitability improving.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
IPM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.11 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.26 | +$0.44 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.28 | +$0.50 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.26 | +$0.54 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.15 | +$0.76 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.70 | -$0.36 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.78 | -$0.58 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.80 | -$0.71 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.91 | -$0.79 |
IPM has the edge over ASTS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over IPM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
IPM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11M | +76% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.5M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.4M | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.2M | +194% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.7M | +157% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.5M | +112% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1M | -23% |
| Q2 2024 | $2.2M | -25% |
IPM's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $11M last quarter, up 76% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -8.1% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -23% | -3.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | -12% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | -13% | N/A |
| Q3 2025 | -23% | +57 points |
| Q2 2025 | -20% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -24% | +5.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | -80% | -66 points |
IPM has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
IPM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.1M | +3703% |
| Q1 2026 | -$265.9K | -115% |
| Q4 2025 | $87.6K | +$1.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $133K | +$912.7K |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7M | +$2.3M |
| Q2 2024 | -$251.3K | -$57.5K |
| Q1 2024 | -$520.8K | +$282.2K |
| Q2 2023 | -$193.8K | +$217.2K |
IPM has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
IPM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -1.3% | -166K shares |
| 3 years | +41% | +3.8M shares |
| 5 years | +89% | +6.1M shares |
| Available history | +90% | +6.2M shares |
IPM has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
IPM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | -2.8x | Net Cash |
IPM has more cash than debt.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
IPM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 42.7 | Neutral |
IPM's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 43 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IPM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | IPM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
IPM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
IPM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1.72 | 1.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $1.79 | 2.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $1.78 | 1.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $1.86 | 5.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $2.33 | 25% below |
IPM has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 25% below its 200-week average.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
IPM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $1.07 | $1.50 | +40% |
| 2021 | $1.50 | $3.15 | +110% |
| 2022 | $3.15 | $1.48 | -53% |
| 2023 | $1.48 | $2.34 | +58% |
| 2024 | $2.34 | $2.15 | -8.1% |
| 2025 | $2.15 | $1.76 | -18% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.76 | $1.75 | -0.6% |
IPM has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.