ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS has a slight edge over IIIV overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
IIIV
i3 Verticals, Inc.
IIIV has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
IIIV Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
IIIV's cash flow is currently strong, and its revenue and profitability are stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IIIV PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.6x | $2.35 | -87% |
| Forward | 15x | $18.64 | — |
| Fair | 28x | $11.67 | -37% |
| Expensive | 40x | $16.63 | -11% |
| Current | 44x | $18.64 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
IIIV's PE is in its expensive range at 44x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
IIIV Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect IIIV's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
IIIV Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.22 | +191% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.42 | -92% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.74 | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.66 | -85% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.72 | -84% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.22 | +$5.26 |
| Q1 2025 | $4.40 | +7233% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.49 | +$4.51 |
| Q3 2024 | $4.45 | +$4.52 |
IIIV has the edge over ASTS on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over IIIV on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
IIIV Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $53.1M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $57.5M | -8.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $52.7M | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $54.9M | -9.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $51.9M | -7.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $63.1M | -33% |
| Q4 2024 | $61.7M | -33% |
| Q3 2024 | $60.9M | -37% |
IIIV's revenue has slid since its 2019 peak: $53M last quarter, up 2.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -1.7% | +7.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.5% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3% | -1.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7% | -3.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | -9.3% | -8.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.3% | -3.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.4% | -4.9 points |
| Q3 2024 | 5.8% | -3.3 points |
IIIV has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
IIIV Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $13M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.6M | +$37.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $13.8M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.5M | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.8M | -5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | -$27.6M | -345% |
| Q4 2024 | $11M | -11% |
| Q3 2024 | $11.8M | +213% |
IIIV has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
IIIV Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -36% | -11M shares |
| 1 year | -42% | -14.4M shares |
| 3 years | -43% | -14.7M shares |
| 5 years | +2.2% | +415K shares |
| Available history | +86% | +9.1M shares |
IIIV has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $48.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $37.9M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $26.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $308,000 |
| Q4 2024 | $11.2M |
| Q3 2024 | $29,000 |
IIIV spent $137M buying back its own shares over the past year, about four times what it spent the year before.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
IIIV Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
IIIV's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
IIIV Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 63.0 | Neutral |
IIIV's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 63 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IIIV PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | IIIV | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 44x | 28x | 59% above |
| PE % | 88 | 35 | 53 pts above |
IIIV is trading at 44x earnings, a 59% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
IIIV Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $16.8 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.6 | 5.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $20.6 | 9.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $23.9 | 22% below |
| 200 week MA | $23.1 | 19% below |
IIIV has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
IIIV Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.3 | $32.9 | +16% |
| 2021 | $32.9 | $23.2 | -29% |
| 2022 | $23.2 | $24.0 | +3.1% |
| 2023 | $24.0 | $21.2 | -12% |
| 2024 | $21.2 | $23.9 | +13% |
| 2025 | $23.9 | $26.2 | +9.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.2 | $18.6 | -29% |
IIIV has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.