ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CMRC
Commerce.com, Inc.
CMRC has the edge over ASTS overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CMRC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
CMRC's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CMRC PE Valuation
CMRC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CMRC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect CMRC's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
CMRC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.57 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.09 | +$0.07 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.08 | +$0.14 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.19 | +$0.08 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.24 | +$0.11 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.16 | +$0.20 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.22 | +$0.32 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.27 | +$0.37 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.35 | +$0.51 |
CMRC has the edge over ASTS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over CMRC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CMRC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $84.2M | -2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $84.5M | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $86.8M | +5.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $89.5M | +2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $86M | +2.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $84.4M | +3.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $82.4M | +2.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $87M | +3.4% |
CMRC's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $84M last quarter, down 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.1% | -1.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2% | +11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.6% | +9.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -7.4% | -6.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | -0.5% | +22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -8% | +8.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.9% | +7.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | -0.9% | +5.9 points |
CMRC has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
CMRC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.7M | -24% |
| Q2 2026 | $50K | -100% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.1M | +$14.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $7.6M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.9M | +1.4% |
| Q1 2025 | -$424K | +$3M |
| Q3 2024 | $5.6M | +$37M |
| Q2 2024 | $11.7M | -20% |
CMRC has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
CMRC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +164K shares |
| 1 year | +2.7% | +2.2M shares |
| 3 years | +10% | +7.6M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +11.6M shares |
| Available history | +46% | +26.1M shares |
CMRC has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | — |
| Q4 2019 | — |
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CMRC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.2x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.7x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 23.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 28.3x | High |
CMRC's net debt is about 5.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
CMRC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.5 | Neutral |
CMRC's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CMRC PE vs Technology Sector
CMRC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.8% above its 200-week average.
CMRC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.43 | 3.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $3.06 | 16% above |
| 50 week MA | $3.13 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $4.21 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.25 | 43% below |
CMRC has the edge over ASTS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.
CMRC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $79.0 | $72.8 | -7.8% |
| 2021 | $72.8 | $38.5 | -47% |
| 2022 | $38.5 | $8.34 | -78% |
| 2023 | $8.34 | $9.73 | +17% |
| 2024 | $9.73 | $6.13 | -37% |
| 2025 | $6.13 | $4.19 | -32% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.19 | $3.54 | -16% |
CMRC has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.