ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS has the edge over BBAI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BBAI has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
BBAI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
BBAI's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BBAI PE Valuation
BBAI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BBAI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses steady | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect BBAI's revenue to grow and its profitability to improve, with its earnings holding steady.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
BBAI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.37 | +$1.10 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.21 | +$1.28 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.87 | -$0.04 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.00 | +$0.25 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.47 | -$0.58 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.49 | -$0.68 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.83 | +$0.05 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.25 | -$0.85 |
BBAI has the edge over ASTS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS has the edge over BBAI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BBAI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $43.6M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $36.7M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $34.4M | -0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $27.3M | -38% |
| Q3 2025 | $33.1M | -20% |
| Q2 2025 | $32.5M | -18% |
| Q1 2025 | $34.8M | +4.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $43.8M | +8% |
BBAI's revenue has held roughly level: $44M last quarter, up 31% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -229% | -163 points |
| Q2 2026 | -78% | +200 points |
| Q1 2026 | -70% | -9.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -295% | -276 points |
| Q3 2025 | -66% | -41 points |
| Q2 2025 | -278% | -236 points |
| Q1 2025 | -61% | +235 points |
| Q4 2024 | -19% | +2.6 points |
BBAI has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
BBAI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$9.8M | -$21K |
| Q2 2026 | -$22.5M | -$18.7M |
| Q1 2026 | -$18.3M | -$11.6M |
| Q4 2025 | -$22.1M | -$7.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$9.8M | -$7.7M |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.9M | +$3.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$6.7M | +$7.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$15M | -$14.9M |
BBAI has the edge over ASTS on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has the edge over BBAI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
BBAI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +1.2M shares |
| 1 year | +50% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +247% | +342M shares |
| 5 years | +4529% | +470M shares |
BBAI has 480M diluted shares, up 50% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | $100.9M |
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
BBAI Net Leverage
BBAI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
BBAI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.9 | Oversold |
BBAI's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 17 (oversold).
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BBAI PE vs Technology Sector
BBAI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has the edge over BBAI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BBAI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.38 | 13% below |
| 20 week MA | $2.78 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $3.86 | 46% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.53 | 54% below |
| 200 week MA | $3.25 | 36% below |
BBAI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 36% below its 200-week average.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS has the edge over BBAI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
BBAI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.62 | $6.85 | -29% |
| 2022 | $6.85 | $0.73 | -89% |
| 2023 | $0.73 | $2.14 | +193% |
| 2024 | $2.14 | $4.21 | +97% |
| 2025 | $4.21 | $5.73 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.73 | $2.07 | -64% |
BBAI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +193% in 2023 to −89% in 2022. It's down 64% so far in 2026.