ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc.
ASTH has the edge over UNH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ASTH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
ASTH's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
ASTH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $31.77 | — |
| Cheap | 26x | $28.12 | -11% |
| Current | 30x | $31.77 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $35.99 | +13% |
| Expensive | 61x | $65.79 | +107% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ASTH has the edge over UNH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ASTH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
ASTH has the edge over UNH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.77 | +65% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.07 | +435% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.82 | +58% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.61 | -16% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.46 | -49% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.20 | -85% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.52 | -64% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.73 | -45% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.90 | -30% |
ASTH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.07 over the past year, against $1.64 in early 2022.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH has the edge over ASTH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ASTH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +7.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $972.5M | +49% |
| Q1 2026 | $965.1M | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $950.5M | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $956M | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $654.8M | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $620.4M | +53% |
| Q4 2024 | $665.2M | +88% |
ASTH has the edge over UNH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9% | +1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.9% | +1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2% | -3.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.1% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.3% | -4.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1% | +1.2 points |
ASTH's operating margin was 3.9% last quarter, up 1.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH's revenue has held roughly level: $113B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH has the edge over ASTH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.4M | +68% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.9M | -68% |
| Q1 2026 | $64.1M | +372% |
| Q4 2025 | -$6M | +$7.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $7.4M | -77% |
| Q2 2025 | $89.5M | +340% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.6M | +142% |
| Q4 2024 | -$13.5M | -210% |
ASTH generated $99M in free cash flow over the past year, up 2.5% from the year before.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $22.8B over the past year.
ASTH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +138K shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +443K shares |
| 3 years | +6.4% | +3M shares |
| 5 years | +8.9% | +4.1M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +12.5M shares |
ASTH has 50M diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago, despite $19M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $2.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $15M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $10.6M |
| Q4 2023 | $503,000 |
ASTH spent $19M buying back its own shares over the past year.
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has the edge over ASTH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
ASTH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
ASTH's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.0 years a year ago.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH has the edge over ASTH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ASTH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 28.8 | Neutral |
ASTH's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 29 (neutral).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
ASTH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | ASTH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 26x | 15% above |
| PE % | 30 | 29 | 1 pt above |
ASTH is trading at 30x earnings, a 15% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH has the edge over ASTH on valuation relative to its sector.
ASTH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.9 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $38.4 | 17% below |
| 50 week MA | $32.8 | 3% below |
| 100 week MA | $31.0 | 2.6% above |
| 200 week MA | $35.1 | 9.6% below |
ASTH's trend is mixed: it's above one of its five weekly moving averages, and 9.6% below its 200-week average.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has the edge over ASTH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.7 | $17.5 | -6.3% |
| 2021 | $17.5 | $70.8 | +305% |
| 2022 | $70.8 | $29.9 | -58% |
| 2023 | $29.9 | $38.3 | +28% |
| 2024 | $38.3 | $32.7 | -15% |
| 2025 | $32.7 | $25.4 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $25.4 | $31.8 | +25% |
ASTH has the edge over UNH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 22% so far in 2026.