ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc.
ASTH has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
ASTH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
ASTH's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
ASTH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $31.77 | — |
| Cheap | 26x | $28.12 | -11% |
| Current | 30x | $31.77 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $35.99 | +13% |
| Expensive | 61x | $65.79 | +107% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ASTH's PE is in its cheap range at 30x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over ASTH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ASTH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
ASTH has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.77 | +65% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.07 | +435% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.82 | +58% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.61 | -16% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.46 | -49% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.20 | -85% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.52 | -64% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.73 | -45% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.90 | -30% |
ASTH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.07 over the past year, against $1.64 in early 2022.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over ASTH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ASTH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +7.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $972.5M | +49% |
| Q1 2026 | $965.1M | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $950.5M | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $956M | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $654.8M | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $620.4M | +53% |
| Q4 2024 | $665.2M | +88% |
ASTH has the edge over NVO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9% | +1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.9% | +1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2% | -3.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.1% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.3% | -4.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1% | +1.2 points |
ASTH's operating margin was 3.9% last quarter, up 1.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO's revenue is growing: $11.7B last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over ASTH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.4M | +68% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.9M | -68% |
| Q1 2026 | $64.1M | +372% |
| Q4 2025 | -$6M | +$7.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $7.4M | -77% |
| Q2 2025 | $89.5M | +340% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.6M | +142% |
| Q4 2024 | -$13.5M | -210% |
ASTH generated $99M in free cash flow over the past year, up 2.5% from the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
ASTH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +138K shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +443K shares |
| 3 years | +6.4% | +3M shares |
| 5 years | +8.9% | +4.1M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +12.5M shares |
ASTH has 50M diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago, despite $19M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $2.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $15M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $10.6M |
| Q4 2023 | $503,000 |
ASTH spent $19M buying back its own shares over the past year.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over ASTH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
ASTH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
ASTH's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.0 years a year ago.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO has the edge over ASTH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ASTH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 28.8 | Neutral |
ASTH's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 29 (neutral).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
ASTH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | ASTH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 26x | 15% above |
| PE % | 30 | 29 | 1 pt above |
ASTH is trading at 30x earnings, a 15% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over ASTH on valuation relative to its sector.
ASTH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.9 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $38.4 | 17% below |
| 50 week MA | $32.8 | 3% below |
| 100 week MA | $31.0 | 2.6% above |
| 200 week MA | $35.1 | 9.6% below |
ASTH's trend is mixed: it's above one of its five weekly moving averages, and 9.6% below its 200-week average.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
ASTH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.7 | $17.5 | -6.3% |
| 2021 | $17.5 | $70.8 | +305% |
| 2022 | $70.8 | $29.9 | -58% |
| 2023 | $29.9 | $38.3 | +28% |
| 2024 | $38.3 | $32.7 | -15% |
| 2025 | $32.7 | $25.4 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $25.4 | $31.8 | +25% |
ASTH has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.