ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc.
ASTH offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over ASTH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
ASTH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
ASTH's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ASTH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $31.77 | — |
| Cheap | 26x | $28.12 | -11% |
| Current | 30x | $31.77 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $35.99 | +13% |
| Expensive | 61x | $65.79 | +107% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ASTH has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ASTH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ASTH, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
ASTH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.77 | +65% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.07 | +435% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.82 | +58% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.61 | -16% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.46 | -49% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.20 | -85% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.52 | -64% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.73 | -45% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.90 | -30% |
ASTH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.07 over the past year, against $1.64 in early 2022.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over ASTH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ASTH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +7.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $972.5M | +49% |
| Q1 2026 | $965.1M | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $950.5M | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $956M | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $654.8M | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $620.4M | +53% |
| Q4 2024 | $665.2M | +88% |
ASTH has the edge over LLY on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9% | +1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.9% | +1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2% | -3.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.1% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.3% | -4.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1% | +1.2 points |
ASTH's operating margin was 3.9% last quarter, up 1.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $24.4B last quarter, up 39% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over ASTH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.4M | +68% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.9M | -68% |
| Q1 2026 | $64.1M | +372% |
| Q4 2025 | -$6M | +$7.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $7.4M | -77% |
| Q2 2025 | $89.5M | +340% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.6M | +142% |
| Q4 2024 | -$13.5M | -210% |
ASTH generated $99M in free cash flow over the past year, up 2.5% from the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over ASTH on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ASTH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +138K shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +443K shares |
| 3 years | +6.4% | +3M shares |
| 5 years | +8.9% | +4.1M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +12.5M shares |
ASTH has 50M diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago, despite $19M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $2.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $15M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $10.6M |
| Q4 2023 | $503,000 |
ASTH spent $19M buying back its own shares over the past year.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over ASTH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ASTH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
ASTH's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.0 years a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over ASTH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ASTH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 28.8 | Neutral |
ASTH's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 29 (neutral).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
ASTH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | ASTH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 26x | 15% above |
| PE % | 30 | 29 | 1 pt above |
ASTH has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
ASTH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.9 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $38.4 | 17% below |
| 50 week MA | $32.8 | 3% below |
| 100 week MA | $31.0 | 2.6% above |
| 200 week MA | $35.1 | 9.6% below |
ASTH's trend is mixed: it's above one of its five weekly moving averages, and 9.6% below its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over ASTH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.7 | $17.5 | -6.3% |
| 2021 | $17.5 | $70.8 | +305% |
| 2022 | $70.8 | $29.9 | -58% |
| 2023 | $29.9 | $38.3 | +28% |
| 2024 | $38.3 | $32.7 | -15% |
| 2025 | $32.7 | $25.4 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $25.4 | $31.8 | +25% |
ASTH's yearly returns have swung widely, from +305% in 2021 to −58% in 2022. It's up 25% so far in 2026.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over ASTH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.