ASTE
Astec Industries, Inc.
ASTE's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over ASTE overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
ASTE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
ASTE's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability and balance sheet are stable.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ASTE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 10x | $38.64 | — |
| Cheap | 30x | $14.87 | -62% |
| Fair | 43x | $21.71 | -44% |
| Current | 77x | $38.64 | — |
| Expensive | 93x | $46.64 | +21% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ASTE's PE is in its expensive range at 77x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over ASTE in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ASTE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ASTE, with profitability improving.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.80 | +660% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.50 | -76% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.85 | -57% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.12 | +70% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.68 | +784% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.08 | +$2.16 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.99 | +$2.09 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.66 | -39% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.19 | -87% |
ASTE has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ASTE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $352.4M | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $408.1M | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $396.3M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $400.6M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $350.1M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $330.3M | -4.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $329.4M | +6.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $359M | +6.5% |
ASTE's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $352M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.9% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.3% | -3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.5% | +9.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.2% | +4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.7% | +4.1 points |
ASTE's operating margin was −0.9% last quarter, down 1.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ASTE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $10.7M | +$23M |
| Q2 2026 | $4.7M | -48% |
| Q1 2026 | $32.6M | +96% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4M | -77% |
| Q3 2025 | -$12.3M | -162% |
| Q2 2025 | $9M | +173% |
| Q1 2025 | $16.6M | +$69.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $32.1M | -14% |
ASTE still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $55M over the past year.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ASTE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -243K shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +158K shares |
| 3 years | +1.3% | +301K shares |
| 5 years | +0.6% | +135K shares |
| Available history | +1.6% | +374K shares |
ASTE has 23M diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | $4M |
| Q4 2019 | — |
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ASTE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ASTE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
ASTE's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.6 years a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ASTE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ASTE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.3 | Oversold |
ASTE's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ASTE PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ASTE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 77x | 24x | 222% above |
| PE % | 77 | 58 | 19 pts above |
ASTE is trading at 77x earnings, a 222% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over ASTE on valuation relative to its sector.
ASTE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.0 | 1% below |
| 20 week MA | $44.5 | 13% below |
| 50 week MA | $49.6 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $44.6 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $41.7 | 7.3% below |
ASTE is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 7.3% below its 200-week average.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over ASTE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ASTE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.1 | $58.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $58.6 | $69.3 | +18% |
| 2022 | $69.3 | $41.0 | -41% |
| 2023 | $41.0 | $37.2 | -9.3% |
| 2024 | $37.2 | $33.2 | -11% |
| 2025 | $33.2 | $45.9 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $45.9 | $38.6 | -16% |
ASTE has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 16% so far in 2026.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over ASTE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.