ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
ASML's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
WDC
Western Digital Corporation
WDC has the edge over ASML overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
ASML Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Unavailable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
ASML's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong. There isn't enough data to rate its revenue.
WDC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
WDC's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
ASML PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 35x | $1,375 | -8.2% |
| Current | 39x | $1,497 | — |
| Fair | 43x | $1,684 | +13% |
| Expensive | 56x | $2,177 | +45% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ASML has the edge over WDC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
WDC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.9x | $255 | -18% |
| Forward | 11x | $311 | — |
| Current | 12x | $311 | — |
| Fair | 19x | $487 | +56% |
| Expensive | 63x | $1,618 | +420% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WDC's PE is in its cheap range at 12x, but its recent earnings include one-off gains. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings.
ASML Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ASML, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
WDC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for WDC, with profitability improving.
ASML Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $38.88 | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $30.61 | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $26.91 | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $26.68 | +40% |
| Q1 2025 | $24.60 | +22% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.42 | -2.9% |
| Q3 2024 | $19.46 | -8.4% |
| Q2 2024 | $19.11 | -7.5% |
WDC has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 58% for ASML versus WDC up 276%.
WDC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $28.81 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.84 | +276% |
| Q2 2026 | $24.28 | +371% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.75 | +268% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.97 | +187% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.87 | +655% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.15 | +$7.76 |
| Q1 2025 | $4.55 | +$9.61 |
| Q4 2024 | $3.47 | +$10.69 |
WDC's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $25.84 over the past year, about four times what it earned the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
ASML Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $13B | +55% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.4B | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.7B | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.8B | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.5B | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.6B | +46% |
ASML has the edge over WDC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q2 2026 | 37% | +4.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 36% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 35% | -0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 35% | +5.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 35% | +9.1 points |
ASML's operating margin was 44% last quarter, up 12 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
WDC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B | +55% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.7B | +44% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.3B | +45% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8B | -31% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -31% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.3B | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3B | +41% |
WDC's revenue is growing: $4.4B last quarter, up 55% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 47% | +19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 42% | +16 points |
| Q1 2026 | 36% | +2.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 30% | +10 points |
| Q3 2025 | 28% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | 26% | +20 points |
| Q1 2025 | 33% | +25 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | +27 points |
WDC has the edge over ASML on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASML Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.6B | +4571% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +292% |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.9B | -$2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $12.2B | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $270.7M | -54% |
| Q3 2025 | $270.7M | -54% |
| Q2 2025 | $397.4M | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | -$527.8M | +$223M |
ASML generated $23.5B in free cash flow over the past year, more than ten times what it generated the year before.
WDC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +130% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $978M | +158% |
| Q4 2025 | $653M | +128% |
| Q3 2025 | $599M | +$661M |
| Q2 2025 | $675M | +170% |
| Q1 2025 | $379M | +$418M |
| Q4 2024 | $287M | +$529M |
WDC has the edge over ASML on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ASML Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -1.4M shares |
| 1 year | -1.1% | -4.1M shares |
| 3 years | -2.6% | -10.3M shares |
| 5 years | -5.3% | -21.5M shares |
| Available history | -8.6% | -36.2M shares |
ASML has the edge over WDC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.5B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B |
| Q3 2025 | $191.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $191.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.9B |
ASML spent $8.7B buying back its own shares over the past year.
WDC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +2.1% | +8M shares |
| 3 years | +19% | +61M shares |
| 5 years | +22% | +68M shares |
| Available history | +29% | +86M shares |
WDC has 384M diluted shares, up 2.1% from a year ago, despite $3B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B |
| Q2 2026 | $672M |
| Q1 2026 | $752M |
| Q4 2025 | $615M |
| Q3 2025 | $553M |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
| Q4 2019 | — |
WDC spent $3B buying back its own shares over the past year.
ASML Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
ASML has the edge over WDC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
WDC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.9x | Healthy |
WDC has more cash than debt.
ASML Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.3 | Oversold |
ASML's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
WDC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.2 | Oversold |
WDC's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 11 (oversold).
ASML PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ASML | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39x | 28x | 38% above |
| PE % | 30 | 35 | 5 pts below |
ASML is trading at 39x earnings, a 38% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
WDC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | WDC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 28x | 57% below |
| PE % | 28 | 35 | 7 pts below |
WDC has the edge over ASML on valuation relative to its sector.
ASML Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,636.6 | 8.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $1,696.6 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $1,531.1 | 2.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $1,160.1 | 29% above |
| 200 week MA | $964.4 | 55% above |
ASML has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 55% above its 200-week average.
WDC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $360.8 | 14% below |
| 20 week MA | $438.4 | 29% below |
| 50 week MA | $380.4 | 18% below |
| 100 week MA | $226.8 | 37% above |
| 200 week MA | $133.7 | 133% above |
WDC has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 133% above its 200-week average.
ASML Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.7 | $483.1 | +63% |
| 2021 | $483.1 | $801.4 | +66% |
| 2022 | $801.4 | $551.4 | -31% |
| 2023 | $551.4 | $756.9 | +37% |
| 2024 | $756.9 | $713.6 | -5.7% |
| 2025 | $713.6 | $1,072.8 | +50% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,072.8 | $1,497.1 | +40% |
ASML has finished higher in four of the last six years, three of them by more than 50%. It's up 40% so far in 2026.
WDC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $47.0 | $37.7 | -20% |
| 2021 | $37.7 | $46.2 | +23% |
| 2022 | $46.2 | $23.1 | -50% |
| 2023 | $23.1 | $39.6 | +71% |
| 2024 | $39.6 | $45.9 | +16% |
| 2025 | $45.9 | $181.5 | +296% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.5 | $311.2 | +71% |
WDC has the edge over ASML on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.