ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.
ARCO has the edge over NKE overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ARCO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
ARCO's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
ARCO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 5.8x | $7.00 | — |
| Cheap | 7.8x | $9.45 | +35% |
| Fair | 11x | $13.88 | +98% |
| Expensive | 19x | $23.55 | +236% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ARCO has the edge over NKE in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE's PE is in its cheap range at 18x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 30x, in its fair range.
ARCO Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for ARCO to show an outlook.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ARCO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.21 | +92% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.11 | +71% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.01 | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.17 | +67% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.63 | -44% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.65 | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.72 | -38% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.70 | -40% |
ARCO has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
ARCO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +5.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +2.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | -0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | -2.7% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.1B | +0.8% |
ARCO has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 5.9% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.5% | -1.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | +5.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.5% | -1.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.2% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9% | +2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 7% | -1 points |
ARCO's operating margin was 5.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE has the edge over ARCO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ARCO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $56.4M | +257% |
| Q1 2026 | -$18.7M | +$43.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $27.2M | +46% |
| Q3 2025 | $30.4M | +421% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.8M | +$30.4M |
| Q1 2025 | -$62.2M | +$8.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $18.6M | +65% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.8M | -87% |
ARCO has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
ARCO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | 0% | +37.2K shares |
| 5 years | +0.1% | +303K shares |
| Available history | +0.4% | +919K shares |
ARCO has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
ARCO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
ARCO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.4x | Elevated |
ARCO's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.0 years a year ago.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over ARCO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ARCO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
ARCO's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
ARCO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ARCO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.8x | 18x | 68% below |
| PE % | 1 | 47 | 46 pts below |
ARCO has the edge over NKE on valuation relative to its sector.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
ARCO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.36 | 4.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.80 | 10% below |
| 50 week MA | $8.05 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $7.74 | 9.6% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.75 | 20% below |
ARCO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 20% below its 200-week average.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has the edge over ARCO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ARCO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $8.18 | $4.93 | -40% |
| 2021 | $4.93 | $5.33 | +8.1% |
| 2022 | $5.33 | $8.32 | +56% |
| 2023 | $8.32 | $12.7 | +53% |
| 2024 | $12.7 | $7.29 | -43% |
| 2025 | $7.29 | $7.37 | +1.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.37 | $7.00 | -5% |
ARCO has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.